CL: England with 83% to win extra CL slot

Updated probabilities after matchday 2. The prediction remains that about 15-16 points will be needed to finish top-8 and about 9-10 point will be needed to finish top-24 and qualify for the knockout-stage.

After four wins for the English teams they now have a 83% chance to win the extra CL slot.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	4	Man City	17	16-4	99.57%	95.3%	76%	95.9%	77%	58%	43%	22%
2	6	Dortmund	17	21-10	99.61%	95.4%	75%	90%	49%	23%	9%	4.7%
3	6	Leverkusen	17	14-7	99.37%	93%	70%	91%	57%	31%	16%	8%
4	4	Arsenal	16	11-4	98.8%	90%	59%	88%	58%	35%	19%	10%
5	4	Inter	15	14-3	97.7%	86%	54%	86%	56%	34%	19%	9%
6	6	Liverpool	15	20-13	97.4%	83%	51%	82%	47%	24%	12%	6%
7	3	Bayern	15	17-12	96.9%	82%	47%	80%	45%	23%	11%	5%
8	3	Real Madrid	15	13-9	96.4%	80%	44%	84%	58%	37%	23%	11%
9	6	Juventus	15	17-15	96.1%	78%	43%	72%	33%	13%	4.7%	2.4%
10	4	Atalanta	14	18-8	96.7%	80%	44%	76%	40%	18%	8%	3.8%
11	6	Aston Villa	14	14-7	95.5%	76%	40%	65%	23%	7%	1.9%	< 1%
12	3	Barcelona	13	21-11	93%	71%	34%	72%	39%	19%	9%	4.3%
13	6	Benfica	13	13-9	92%	64%	27%	55%	18%	5%	1.4%	< 1%
14	3	Atletico	13	12-14	86%	54%	19%	55%	23%	9%	3.2%	1.6%
15	4	Sporting	12	10-6	84%	52%	18%	53%	22%	9%	3.0%	1.5%
16	3	Paris SG	12	10-9	81%	48%	16%	56%	28%	14%	6%	3.0%
17	4	Monaco	12	13-13	83%	46%	13%	43%	15%	4.5%	1.2%	< 1%
18	6	Brest	12	12-13	81%	44%	13%	33%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
19	1	Stuttgart	11	14-13	75%	38%	10%	40%	14%	4.9%	1.5%	< 1%
20	0	Milan	11	12-11	74%	36%	7%	41%	16%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
21	3	Lille	11	11-11	74%	36%	9%	38%	13%	4.0%	1.2%	< 1%
22	1	PSV	11	8-13	67%	30%	6%	34%	12%	4.1%	1.2%	< 1%
23	4	Sparta Praha	10	13-15	61%	23%	4.3%	24%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
24	0	RB Leipzig	10	12-14	58%	23%	4.2%	34%	14%	6%	2.3%	1.2%
25	3	Feyenoord	10	13-18	59%	23%	4.5%	25%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Celtic	10	13-18	57%	21%	3.9%	16%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	Girona	9	9-11	47%	15%	2.3%	22%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Brugge	9	10-14	48%	16%	2.6%	17%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	1	Bologna	9	8-12	45%	15%	2.5%	20%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Dinamo Zagreb	7	10-23	18%	3.1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	1	Shakhtar	6	3-14	10%	1.3%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Salzburg	6	2-13	12%	1.7%	< 1%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Young Boys	5	6-18	8%	1.0%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Sturm Graz	4	6-14	6%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Crvena Zvezda	4	8-17	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Slovan Bratislava	3	6-24	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	8-9	14	14-13	17	18-9
5%	10	17-15	13	16-11	16	25-12
25%	10	9-12	13	16-16	16	14-8
50%	9	14-12	12	16-11	15	17-6
75%	9	7-10	12	11-10	15	14-9
95%	8	10-12	11	11-8	14	17-11
99%	8	16-23	11	13-14	14	10-7

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	83%	18.47	9.21	26.36
POR	30%	15.34	6.6	28
ITA	29%	15.51	8.06	23.5
ESP	27%	15.27	6.86	25.67
GER	16%	14.6	7.19	23.56
BEL	7%	13.36	5.6	23.6
CYP	3.1%	12.33	4.33	23.5
CZE	2.8%	12.68	6.7	22.6
GRE	1.6%	11.77	4.63	21.38
TUR	< 1%	11.6	4.9	20.9
FRA	< 1%	11.13	4.79	19.93
UKR	< 1%	7.78	2.5	24.75
NED	< 1%	9.46	4	19.25
SWE	< 1%	9.48	4.75	19.25
NOR	< 1%	9.35	4.38	16.88
DEN	< 1%	8.63	3.5	16
AUT	< 1%	7.57	2.8	17.75