PL: Man United travel to Villa Park

On Saturday Leicester host Bournemouth in an a crucial match in the bottom. On Sunday United travel to Villa Park while Spurs travel down to Brighton for important matches in the Europa race (detailed below).

Hot Teams
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Fulham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Leicester: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
14	Man City	87.8	+61	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.92%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
14	Arsenal	79.5	+43	< 1%	99.90%	99.72%	99.18%	97.5%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	98.9%
15	Liverpool	74.1	+35	< 1%	99.08%	97.9%	95.2%	89%	5%	< 1%	4.6%	94%
13	Chelsea	64.8	+20	< 1%	87%	78%	65%	45%	< 1%	4.9%	27%	60%
11	Newcastle	61.0	+10	< 1%	71%	58%	41%	23%	< 1%	11%	29%	37%
10	Tottenham	59.5	+15	< 1%	65%	51%	35%	18%	< 1%	11%	25%	39%
13	Aston Villa	58.9	+5	< 1%	60%	45%	30%	15%	< 1%	13%	27%	27%
7	Man United	54.2	+1	< 1%	33%	22%	12%	4.8%	< 1%	13%	18%	18%
9	Brighton	52.0	-1	1.2%	24%	14%	7%	2.8%	< 1%	11%	14%	6%
11	Fulham	51.2	-5	1.5%	19%	11%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	8%	12%	4.7%
5	West Ham	48.9	-5	3.3%	12%	7%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	9%	2.5%
7	Brentford	48.7	-6	3.6%	12%	7%	3.1%	1.0%	< 1%	8%	8%	2.6%
8	Bournemouth	46.7	-11	6%	7%	3.6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	5.0%	1.3%
3	Crystal Palace	45.9	-7	7%	6%	3.1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	5.0%	7%	1.1%
9	Forest	43.5	-16	13%	2.8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	5.0%	< 1%
4	Everton	41.4	-20	21%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.4%	< 1%
1	Wolves	38.1	-23	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Leicester	37.2	-22	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
4	Ipswich	31.3	-35	78%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Southampton	29.2	-38	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	93%	60%	20%	2.3%	33%	7%	2.3%
Arsenal	50%	11%	1.2%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	28%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	32%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	1.3%	< 1%			< 1%
West Ham	1.7%	< 1%			< 1%
Brentford	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.5%	< 1%
Forest	3.3%	< 1%			< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Leicester	2.0%	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	1.5%	< 1%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Man United (2.5%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Aston Villa	60%	51%	44%
Man United	30%	35%	43%
Brighton vs Tottenham (2.3%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Tottenham	58%	63%	71%
Brighton	26%	18%	15%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leicester vs Bournemouth (2.4%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Leicester	65%	55%	50%
Bournemouth	92%	94%	97.0%

 

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	76%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	84%	77%
Sixth team	98.8%	93%	3.1%
Seventh team	89%	59%	2.8%
Eighth team	56%	9%	2.5%

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Crystal Palace	30%	24%	46%	Liverpool
Arsenal	84%	11%	6%	Southampton
West Ham	67%	18%	14%	Ipswich
Man City	82%	12%	6%	Fulham
Leicester	43%	24%	33%	Bournemouth
Brentford	55%	22%	23%	Wolves
Everton	36%	24%	40%	Newcastle
Aston Villa	49%	23%	28%	Man United
Chelsea	67%	18%	15%	Forest
Brighton	42%	24%	33%	Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams in CL

11%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
11%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
5%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
3.7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.3%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.1%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

21%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
18%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
9%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
6%	Forest, Ipswich, Southampton
5%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
3.3%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
3.0%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
2.7%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
2.6%	Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton
2.1%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves