Europa League - Matchweek 1

Updated probabilities after one match. In most simulations, 14-15 points are required to finish within top-8 and 9-10 points are required to reach the knockout stage.

Europa League

Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
3	Tottenham	16	18-9	98.2%	90%	69%	90%	61%	39%	24%	12%
3	Lazio	16	11-7	96.8%	86%	61%	86%	55%	33%	19%	9%
3	Galatasaray	16	18-16	96.9%	86%	61%	82%	42%	19%	8%	4.2%
3	Slavia Praha	15	15-10	95.5%	82%	54%	81%	47%	25%	13%	7%
1	Bilbao	14	16-4	94%	80%	50%	80%	49%	28%	15%	8%
3	Lyon	14	11-6	93%	74%	44%	71%	36%	16%	7%	3.5%
1	Man United	14	16-13	91%	72%	40%	76%	48%	29%	17%	8%
1	Roma	14	15-12	91%	72%	40%	77%	50%	31%	19%	9%
1	Sociedad	14	13-11	90%	70%	39%	72%	42%	23%	12%	6%
0	Porto	13	13-11	85%	61%	30%	70%	46%	29%	18%	9%
3	Anderlecht	13	12-11	87%	62%	29%	58%	24%	9%	3.5%	1.7%
3	Fenerbahce	13	11-11	84%	59%	29%	60%	31%	15%	7%	3.3%
1	Frankfurt	12	19-11	86%	59%	26%	60%	29%	14%	6%	2.9%
3	Ajax	12	15-11	83%	55%	24%	49%	18%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
1	Nice	12	14-10	82%	56%	25%	57%	27%	12%	5%	2.7%
3	Braga	12	12-11	80%	51%	22%	51%	22%	9%	3.6%	1.8%
0	Olympiakos	12	13-14	77%	48%	19%	49%	22%	9%	3.7%	1.9%
1	Hoffenheim	12	13-14	78%	48%	19%	51%	25%	11%	4.8%	2.4%
3	Bodoe Glimt	12	10-14	75%	45%	17%	40%	14%	4.3%	1.2%	< 1%
3	Rangers	11	13-12	73%	42%	15%	38%	12%	3.8%	1.1%	< 1%
0	PAOK	11	12-11	73%	41%	13%	40%	15%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
3	Alkmaar	10	13-12	64%	33%	11%	31%	10%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
0	St Gillis	10	8-7	62%	33%	11%	36%	16%	6%	2.5%	1.2%
1	Twente	10	16-16	61%	31%	10%	32%	11%	3.8%	1.2%	< 1%
1	Viktoria Plzen	10	14-14	61%	31%	10%	32%	12%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%
1	Midtjylland	10	9-10	58%	29%	9%	29%	10%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
0	M Tel Aviv	10	13-16	57%	27%	8%	26%	8%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Karabakh Agdam	10	10-13	57%	27%	8%	26%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Dynamo Kyiv	8	8-12	34%	11%	1.8%	12%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Steaua	8	11-23	29%	9%	1.7%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Malmoe	7	13-14	31%	10%	2.1%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Besiktas	7	8-15	25%	8%	1.4%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Ferencvaros	7	11-23	20%	6%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Elfsborg	6	8-14	16%	4.1%	< 1%	4.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Razgrad	6	8-16	15%	3.7%	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	RFS	3	6-24	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	12-14	13	18-13	16	22-9
5%	10	16-15	13	16-14	16	14-7
25%	10	12-15	12	15-9	15	19-11
50%	9	13-11	12	11-9	15	14-10
75%	9	8-10	12	11-13	14	15-8
95%	8	14-15	11	11-10	14	13-11
99%	8	9-13	11	10-12	13	15-10

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	76%	17.97	7.79	26.29
ESP	38%	15.93	7.07	25.14
ITA	27%	15.34	7.38	24.19
POR	25%	15.01	6.4	27
GER	21%	15	6.69	24.44
BEL	5%	13.09	5.4	24.25
CYP	3.0%	12.32	5	24.17
CZE	2.6%	12.6	6.3	22.2
GRE	1.6%	11.78	4.63	21.63
TUR	< 1%	11.59	5.1	21.1
FRA	< 1%	10.76	4.36	19.57
UKR	< 1%	8.13	2.5	24.75
NED	< 1%	9.18	3.33	19.08
SWE	< 1%	9.48	4.5	19
NOR	< 1%	9.36	4.38	17.38
DEN	< 1%	8.63	3.5	16.25
AUT	< 1%	8.09	2.8	17.6
SCO	< 1%	6.23	2	14.1