PL: Villa and Forest with the best start of the season.

With their late equaliser City gained 8% in their chances to win the league.

Villa and Forest have the most positive starts, while Everton, Southampton, Palace, Wolves and Leicester all have started worse than expected.

Coming weekend Chelsea are hosting Brighton in a match for the CL race, while Tottenha, travel to Old Trafford in a crucial match for the EL slots.

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Forest: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Arsenal: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Leicester: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
13	Man City	88.7	+61	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.95%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
11	Arsenal	79.1	+43	< 1%	99.85%	99.63%	99.01%	97.3%	14%	< 1%	1.1%	98.7%
12	Liverpool	73.0	+34	< 1%	98.5%	96.9%	94%	87%	3.6%	1.1%	6%	92%
10	Chelsea	63.8	+19	< 1%	83%	74%	60%	41%	< 1%	6%	29%	56%
10	Newcastle	60.9	+9	< 1%	70%	57%	42%	24%	< 1%	11%	28%	37%
12	Aston Villa	59.7	+6	< 1%	63%	50%	35%	19%	< 1%	12%	26%	31%
7	Tottenham	57.7	+12	< 1%	54%	41%	27%	13%	< 1%	12%	22%	32%
7	Man United	55.9	+5	< 1%	43%	30%	18%	9%	< 1%	12%	20%	24%
9	Brighton	52.9	+1	< 1%	27%	18%	10%	4.2%	< 1%	11%	16%	8%
8	Fulham	49.4	-6	2.9%	14%	8%	3.9%	1.4%	< 1%	6%	9%	3.3%
6	Brentford	49.4	-6	3.4%	14%	8%	4.1%	1.5%	< 1%	8%	9%	3.4%
4	West Ham	49.0	-6	3.6%	13%	7%	3.5%	1.3%	< 1%	6%	9%	3.0%
3	Crystal Palace	47.1	-6	6%	8%	4.6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	8%	1.8%
5	Bournemouth	45.7	-12	8%	6%	2.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	4.1%	1.0%
9	Forest	45.0	-15	10%	4.4%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	6%	< 1%
1	Everton	40.0	-21	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
1	Wolves	39.1	-23	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Leicester	37.5	-22	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
3	Ipswich	31.3	-36	78%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Southampton	29.9	-37	83%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	95.1%	65%	23%	3.0%	35%	8%	3.0%
Arsenal	44%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	26%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	33%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	1.3%	< 1%			< 1%
Brentford	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	5%	< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Forest	3.3%
Everton	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Leicester	2.1%	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	1.2%	< 1%

Important matches for CL race
Chelsea vs Brighton (2.1%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Chelsea	61%	51%	45%
Brighton	6%	9%	14%

 

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Tottenham (2.3%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Man United	50%	41%	36%
Tottenham	49%	55%	63%

 

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	95.1%	65%	23%	3.0%	35%	8%	3.0%
Arsenal	44%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	26%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	33%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	1.3%	< 1%			< 1%
Brentford	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	5%	< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Forest	3.3%
Everton	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Leicester	2.1%	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	1.2%	< 1%