PL: Bournemouth hottest team in the league

Bournemouth is the hottest team in the league with 10 points in the last five matches, including wins against Arsenal and man City. Arsenal on the other hand  has the weakest form with only 7 points in the last five matches, 3.3 points less than expected.

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Forest: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Tottenham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Brighton: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Arsenal: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Ipswich: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
Aston Villa: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
23	Man City	86.4	+54	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.90%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
25	Liverpool	80.0	+41	< 1%	99.95%	99.84%	99.49%	98.3%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	99.50%
18	Arsenal	74.8	+36	< 1%	99.48%	98.8%	97.1%	92%	6%	< 1%	2.2%	97.2%
18	Chelsea	65.6	+22	< 1%	90%	83%	71%	51%	< 1%	3.1%	22%	70%
18	Aston Villa	61.0	+9	< 1%	71%	58%	41%	21%	< 1%	9%	27%	41%
16	Tottenham	59.7	+19	< 1%	66%	52%	35%	17%	< 1%	11%	24%	44%
15	Newcastle	57.8	+6	< 1%	52%	38%	23%	10%	< 1%	15%	28%	22%
16	Brighton	54.5	+2	< 1%	32%	21%	11%	4.2%	< 1%	11%	20%	11%
15	Bournemouth	51.8	-3	< 1%	19%	11%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	8%	13%	5%
12	Man United	51.6	-2	< 1%	18%	10%	4.9%	1.6%	< 1%	10%	11%	12%
19	Forest	51.6	-4	< 1%	18%	10%	4.9%	1.6%	< 1%	8%	15%	4.8%
15	Fulham	50.7	-4	< 1%	15%	9%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%	7%	11%	3.9%
13	Brentford	48.3	-7	2.2%	9%	4.7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	7%	2.0%
11	West Ham	48.1	-10	2.5%	8%	4.0%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	7%	1.6%
9	Crystal Palace	44.6	-9	7%	3.1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	4.5%	< 1%
9	Everton	40.9	-19	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
10	Leicester	38.3	-23	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
2	Wolves	34.2	-27	57%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Ipswich	27.8	-40	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Southampton	26.2	-41	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	96.7%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	83%	76%
Sixth team	99.82%	99.08%	3.6%
Seventh team	95.2%	73%	3.1%
Eighth team	68%	11%	2.6%

Most likely combo of teams in CL

16%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
16%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.9%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.0%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
1.9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.8%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

43%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
20%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
11%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
4.1%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
4.0%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
2.6%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
2.1%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves
1.6%	Ipswich, Southampton, West Ham
1.5%	Brentford, Ipswich, Southampton
1.4%	Everton, Ipswich, Wolves