CL: Liverpool clinch knockout stage

Liverpool have started with 12 points and that suffice for a top-24 finish in all simulations.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	12	Liverpool	19	18-6	100%	99.32%	92%	97.9%	66%	39%	22%	11%
2	10	Inter	17	17-7	99.97%	96.7%	77%	94%	63%	38%	21%	11%
3	9	Barcelona	16	24-12	99.80%	92%	65%	89%	54%	29%	14%	7%
4	7	Man City	16	18-7	99.56%	91%	59%	94%	75%	58%	43%	22%
5	9	Dortmund	16	20-10	99.76%	93%	64%	84%	39%	16%	6%	2.8%
6	10	Sporting	16	17-9	99.88%	91%	59%	83%	41%	17%	7%	3.3%
7	7	Arsenal	16	11-8	99.27%	86%	46%	86%	56%	34%	19%	10%
8	8	Atalanta	15	12-5	99.28%	84%	41%	76%	38%	17%	7%	3.4%
9	9	Aston Villa	15	14-8	99.15%	81%	41%	72%	31%	12%	4.0%	2.0%
10	7	Leverkusen	15	14-9	98.8%	81%	40%	79%	45%	24%	11%	6%
11	6	Milan	15	14-9	97.8%	78%	35%	66%	26%	9%	2.8%	1.4%
12	6	Bayern	14	23-12	97.9%	76%	33%	75%	41%	21%	10%	4.8%
13	10	Monaco	14	13-8	99.39%	75%	30%	62%	22%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
14	10	Brest	14	11-6	99.30%	73%	30%	55%	15%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
15	6	Real Madrid	13	14-10	95%	54%	15%	72%	43%	26%	14%	7%
16	7	Lille	13	13-11	94%	54%	14%	52%	19%	7%	2.0%	1.0%
17	7	Celtic	13	14-13	92%	50%	13%	35%	7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
18	7	Juventus	13	14-15	90%	46%	12%	52%	22%	9%	3.0%	1.5%
19	6	Atletico	13	10-11	91%	48%	12%	48%	17%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
20	5	PSV	12	13-9	87%	40%	8%	47%	18%	7%	2.2%	1.1%
21	4	Stuttgart	12	9-7	86%	38%	6%	44%	16%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
22	6	Benfica	11	13-13	75%	24%	4.0%	33%	10%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	4	Paris SG	10	10-13	57%	13%	1.3%	35%	18%	9%	4.2%	2.1%
24	6	Feyenoord	10	9-13	61%	13%	1.3%	24%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	7	Dinamo Zagreb	10	15-21	58%	12%	1.5%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	6	Brugge	10	6-15	47%	8%	< 1%	13%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	4	Sparta Praha	8	12-23	23%	2.2%	< 1%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Girona	7	9-15	19%	1.5%	< 1%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	Shakhtar	7	5-15	11%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	0	RB Leipzig	6	11-15	11%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	1	Bologna	5	5-9	9%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Salzburg	5	7-19	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Sturm Graz	3	5-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Crvena Zvezda	3	7-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Young Boys	3	6-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Slovan Bratislava	1	4-24	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	12-11	14	17-11	17	19-9
5%	11	11-14	14	16-13	17	21-15
25%	10	15-17	13	10-4	16	23-15
50%	10	14-20	13	16-14	16	9-3
75%	9	14-16	13	14-16	15	22-12
95%	8	13-14	12	12-10	15	13-9
99%	8	7-13	12	16-22	14	14-7

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95.4%	19.7	11.57	27.14
ITA	38%	15.8	9.06	23.44
POR	33%	15.47	8	26.4
ESP	17%	14.6	7.14	24.64
GER	10%	14.1	7.69	22.63
BEL	3.4%	12.95	7	23.7
FRA	< 1%	11.64	5.79	20.29
CYP	< 1%	10.79	5.33	23.5
CZE	< 1%	10.98	5.9	20.5
GRE	< 1%	10.69	4.88	20.63
TUR	< 1%	10.62	5.1	20.1
NED	< 1%	10.19	5	18.92
UKR	< 1%	7.37	3.5	22.75
NOR	< 1%	10.03	5.38	16.88
SWE	< 1%	9.24	5.5	18.5
DEN	< 1%	9.3	4.5	16.25
POL	< 1%	9.6	5.25	15.5

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 254 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	11%	34%	37%	15%	2.0%
Chance	< 1%	11%	41%	78%	97%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 229 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	3.4%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2.6%
Chance	< 1%	6%	23%	52%	79%	94%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 212 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	40%	43%	15%	2.0%
Chance	9%	36%	76%	98%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 212 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	5%	24%	37%	25%	7%	< 1%
Chance	2.7%	11%	33%	64%	89%	99%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 193 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.1%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4.1%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	16%	45%	76%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 188 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	3.6%	21%	45%	26%	4.1%
Chance	< 1%	6%	28%	60%	86%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 185 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	38%	31%	12%	2.0%
Chance	< 1%	4.9%	22%	56%	88%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 137 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	2.1%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	< 1%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	24%	53%	81%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 130 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.6%	12%	33%	38%	15%
Chance	1.2%	8%	24%	48%	70%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 125 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	21%	40%	29%	10%	1.5%
Chance	< 1%	2.7%	13%	40%	76%