Europe: Lazio clinch a place in the knockout stage

Lazio clinch a place in the knockout-stage of EL.

In Conference League, size teams have started with three wins and have most likely (>99.99%) qualified for the knockout stage.

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	12	Lazio	20	16-5	100%	99.97%	98.1%	99.59%	72%	47%	29%	15%
2	10	Bilbao	18	11-4	99.98%	99.01%	89%	96.7%	62%	35%	18%	9%
3	9	Tottenham	17	15-7	99.92%	98.1%	83%	96.3%	70%	47%	30%	15%
4	10	Galatasaray	17	15-13	99.96%	96.8%	75%	91%	49%	23%	10%	5.0%
5	10	Ajax	16	21-7	>99.99%	98.0%	80%	92%	47%	20%	8%	3.8%
6	10	Frankfurt	16	12-8	99.91%	95%	65%	88%	50%	25%	11%	6%
7	6	Man United	14	18-9	98.2%	86%	49%	84%	54%	31%	17%	9%
8	7	Lyon	14	13-7	97.9%	84%	44%	79%	43%	22%	10%	5%
9	10	Anderlecht	14	11-8	99.53%	84%	42%	70%	27%	9%	2.7%	1.3%
10	7	Olympiakos	13	12-9	94%	70%	26%	60%	23%	8%	2.5%	1.3%
11	7	Bodoe Glimt	13	9-12	91%	59%	15%	50%	17%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
12	4	Porto	12	15-10	90%	61%	18%	71%	45%	28%	17%	8%
13	4	Slavia Praha	12	11-6	90%	61%	17%	66%	37%	20%	10%	5%
14	5	Roma	12	8-8	84%	50%	12%	63%	37%	21%	11%	6%
15	7	Midtjylland	12	9-10	86%	50%	13%	47%	17%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
16	9	Steaua	12	10-12	90%	52%	13%	30%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	4	Sociedad	11	11-10	80%	41%	6%	51%	25%	12%	5%	2.6%
18	5	Hoffenheim	11	12-12	77%	39%	8%	45%	19%	7%	2.8%	1.4%
19	6	Alkmaar	11	11-11	78%	41%	10%	38%	12%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
20	6	Viktoria Plzen	11	9-9	78%	40%	9%	41%	14%	4.8%	1.5%	< 1%
21	7	Rangers	11	13-14	79%	37%	7%	36%	11%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	6	Ferencvaros	10	10-9	72%	31%	5%	22%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	5	Fenerbahce	10	12-13	66%	29%	5%	39%	17%	8%	3.1%	1.6%
24	6	Besiktas	10	8-14	61%	24%	3.8%	21%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	Twente	9	15-16	55%	20%	2.1%	26%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
26	2	Nice	9	11-12	55%	19%	1.2%	32%	14%	7%	2.8%	1.4%
27	4	Braga	8	10-14	40%	10%	< 1%	19%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Karabakh Agdam	8	7-13	32%	8%	< 1%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	2	St Gillis	7	9-11	28%	6%	< 1%	12%	3.7%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	Elfsborg	7	10-15	21%	2.8%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	1	PAOK	7	10-15	21%	2.8%	< 1%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Malmoe	7	6-11	23%	4.8%	< 1%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	M Tel Aviv	5	9-16	6%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Dynamo Kyiv	5	9-19	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	1	Razgrad	5	6-19	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	2	RFS	3	9-18	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	13-11	13	13-10	16	20-9
5%	10	11-12	13	14-14	16	13-6
25%	10	8-14	12	17-15	15	17-8
50%	9	9-10	12	8-8	15	14-11
75%	9	9-13	11	12-9	14	15-9
95%	8	9-11	11	11-12	14	11-9
99%	8	10-15	10	10-7	13	16-11

Europa Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Chelsea	16	24-5	100%	>99.99%	99.27%	99.96%	91%	78%	63%	32%
2	9	Heidenheim	14	9-2	>99.99%	98.4%	80%	96.5%	69%	40%	19%	9%
3	9	Rapid Wien	14	8-2	>99.99%	98.0%	79%	92%	45%	15%	3.5%	1.8%
4	9	Legia	13	14-5	100%	98.1%	79%	93%	49%	18%	4.9%	2.5%
5	6	Fiorentina	13	15-8	99.89%	97.4%	76%	98.0%	84%	64%	45%	22%
6	9	Jagiellonia	13	13-6	100%	97.6%	75%	90%	42%	13%	2.9%	1.5%
7	9	Guimaraes	13	11-6	>99.99%	96.9%	70%	93%	57%	27%	10%	5%
8	6	Gent	13	11-8	99.76%	95.8%	66%	92%	59%	30%	12%	6%
9	4	Betis	11	11-5	99.09%	88%	41%	90%	63%	39%	20%	10%
10	6	Olimpija Ljubljana	11	11-5	99.10%	85%	36%	69%	23%	6%	1.1%	< 1%
11	4	Cercle Brugge	10	14-13	91%	57%	13%	61%	24%	8%	2.2%	1.1%
12	6	Lugano	10	7-6	93%	62%	18%	61%	22%	7%	1.6%	< 1%
13	7	Shamrock	10	10-13	94%	54%	6%	26%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	3	Molde	9	16-11	90%	59%	12%	64%	28%	11%	3.4%	1.7%
15	4	Djurgarden	9	9-7	87%	50%	10%	47%	13%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
16	6	Paphos	9	9-8	89%	48%	9%	49%	14%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%
17	6	Hearts	9	8-7	92%	50%	8%	43%	10%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	6	Vikingur	9	9-14	75%	32%	4.4%	19%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	1	Panathinaikos	8	11-8	86%	44%	< 1%	56%	23%	9%	2.7%	1.4%
20	2	FC Kobenhavn	8	10-7	78%	33%	1.3%	58%	29%	14%	6%	2.8%
21	4	APOEL	8	7-9	72%	28%	2.7%	30%	7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
22	3	Omonia	7	11-8	72%	32%	5%	38%	11%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Celje	7	14-12	73%	29%	3.7%	30%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
24	4	Borac Banja Luka	7	8-11	57%	19%	1.7%	13%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	StGallen	7	10-16	48%	11%	< 1%	24%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Noah	7	6-12	53%	17%	< 1%	15%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	2	LASK	6	6-8	43%	4.5%	< 1%	18%	4.8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Backa Topola	6	7-13	25%	3.7%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	1	Bueyueksehir	5	10-14	32%	5%	< 1%	16%	5%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	FK Astana	5	4-8	20%	2.9%	< 1%	7%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	The New Saints	4	8-12	18%	2.9%	< 1%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	HJK Helsinki	4	2-12	6%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Mlada Boleslav	3	5-11	6%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Dinamo Minsk	3	5-13	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Petrocub	1	6-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Larne	1	4-25	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	6-6	10	12-8	13	15-6
5%	7	10-6	10	11-9	13	10-3
25%	7	11-13	10	10-11	13	9-6
50%	7	8-12	9	13-10	12	12-6
75%	6	12-10	9	7-6	12	12-9
95%	6	6-9	9	8-16	11	10-4
99%	6	7-13	8	7-6	11	9-7

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95.7%	19.67	10.93	27
ITA	38%	15.71	9.13	23.56
POR	30%	15.26	8	27
ESP	18%	14.55	7.5	23.43
GER	12%	14.27	8	22.44
BEL	3.3%	12.94	7.4	22.4
CYP	1.5%	11.77	6.67	23.17
FRA	< 1%	11.52	5.93	20.5
TUR	< 1%	10.89	6.1	19.6
CZE	< 1%	11	6.5	19.8
NED	< 1%	10.69	5.5	19.08
GRE	< 1%	10.1	4.63	20.25
UKR	< 1%	6.49	3.5	21.5
SWE	< 1%	9.4	6.25	18.13
NOR	< 1%	9.31	5.38	16.38
DEN	< 1%	8.63	4.75	16.5
POL	< 1%	9.9	6.25	15.63

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 250 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	11%	35%	37%	15%	1.7%
Chance	< 1%	9%	38%	76%	97%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 235 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	3.6%	16%	33%	31%	13%	2.6%
Chance	< 1%	5%	23%	52%	79%	94%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 218 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	6%	25%	37%	25%	7%	< 1%
Chance	2.3%	11%	32%	64%	89%	99%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 210 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	41%	42%	15%	1.9%
Chance	8%	34%	74%	98%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 191 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.9%	12%	30%	34%	18%	3.9%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	16%	45%	77%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 186 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	3.8%	23%	46%	24%	3.2%
Chance	< 1%	4.9%	27%	60%	86%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 184 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	37%	32%	12%	2.0%
Chance	< 1%	4.8%	22%	55%	88%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 150 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.6%	11%	27%	33%	20%	6%	< 1%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	7%	26%	56%	84%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 137 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	19%	39%	30%	11%	1.8%
Chance	< 1%	3.3%	15%	43%	78%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 133 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.7%	12%	33%	38%	15%
Chance	1.1%	8%	24%	47%	70%