PL: Brighton hottest team in the league.

Brighton and Liverpool the hottest team in the league while Arsenal and Man City take fewer points than expected.

Hot Teams
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 more than expected
Forest: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Bournemouth: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Fulham: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Arsenal: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Man City: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Tottenham: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Aston Villa: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected
Wolves: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
23	Man City	84.3	+51	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.83%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%
28	Liverpool	80.9	+41	< 1%	99.98%	99.92%	99.72%	99.0%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	99.72%
19	Arsenal	74.4	+36	< 1%	99.46%	98.8%	97.1%	93%	6%	< 1%	2.2%	97.1%
19	Chelsea	65.3	+22	< 1%	89%	81%	70%	50%	< 1%	3.2%	22%	69%
18	Aston Villa	60.4	+8	< 1%	66%	53%	37%	19%	< 1%	10%	27%	37%
18	Newcastle	59.4	+8	< 1%	61%	47%	31%	15%	< 1%	14%	28%	30%
16	Tottenham	57.3	+16	< 1%	51%	37%	22%	10%	< 1%	14%	22%	34%
19	Brighton	56.7	+4	< 1%	44%	31%	19%	8%	< 1%	11%	24%	18%
18	Fulham	52.7	-2	< 1%	22%	13%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	9%	14%	6%
15	Man United	52.5	-0	< 1%	21%	13%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	11%	13%	14%
15	Bournemouth	50.7	-4	< 1%	15%	8%	3.9%	1.2%	< 1%	7%	10%	3.8%
19	Forest	50.2	-6	< 1%	12%	7%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	12%	3.0%
16	Brentford	49.5	-6	1.5%	11%	6%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	8%	2.8%
12	West Ham	47.3	-10	3.2%	6%	2.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	5%	1.1%
9	Crystal Palace	43.6	-11	9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	3.6%	< 1%
10	Everton	40.9	-19	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Leicester	37.5	-25	35%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%
5	Wolves	34.8	-26	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Ipswich	30.4	-37	82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Southampton	25.4	-42	95.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	83%	37%	6%		26%	6%
Liverpool	64%	20%	2.8%	< 1%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Arsenal	52%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	33%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	13%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	26%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	1.2%	< 1%			< 1%
Fulham	1.4%	< 1%			< 1%
Man United	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Forest	5.0%	< 1%			< 1%
Brentford	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	1.5%
Crystal Palace	4.5%	< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Leicester	1.4%
Wolves	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	1.1%	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	95.3%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	83%	76%
Sixth team	99.74%	98.7%	3.2%
Seventh team	95%	72%	3.2%
Eighth team	67%	11%	3.0%

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39
Most likely combo of teams in CL

14%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
11%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
6%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.6%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.4%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

37%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
22%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
10%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
7%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
4.6%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
3.1%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves
1.9%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
1.8%	Ipswich, Southampton, West Ham
1.8%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
1.7%	Crystal Palace, Southampton, Wolves