Europe: Knockout Stage

 Here are the probabilities in the knockout stage before the draw.

England have 96.5% to get the extra CL spot, followed by Italy (47%), Spain (28%), and Portugal (19%).

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Liverpool	21	17-5	100%	75%	52%	35%	17%
2	19	Barcelona	19	28-13	100%	59%	29%	13%	7%
3	19	Arsenal	19	16-3	100%	62%	41%	26%	13%
4	19	Inter	19	11-1	100%	63%	42%	27%	14%
5	18	Atletico	18	20-12	100%	58%	26%	10%	5%
6	16	Leverkusen	16	15-7	100%	65%	33%	16%	8%
7	16	Lille	16	17-10	100%	51%	18%	6%	3.0%
8	16	Aston Villa	16	13-6	100%	48%	16%	4.9%	2.5%
9	15	Atalanta	15	20-6	72%	32%	17%	9%	4.4%
10	15	Dortmund	15	22-12	56%	16%	6%	2.1%	1.0%
11	15	Bayern	15	20-12	62%	22%	12%	6%	2.9%
12	15	Real Madrid	15	20-12	69%	29%	18%	10%	5%
13	15	Milan	15	14-11	56%	23%	9%	3.4%	1.7%
14	14	PSV	14	16-12	53%	20%	7%	2.5%	1.2%
15	13	Paris SG	13	14-9	75%	48%	24%	11%	6%
16	13	Benfica	13	16-12	59%	28%	9%	2.6%	1.3%
17	13	Monaco	13	13-13	37%	16%	4.8%	1.3%	< 1%
18	13	Brest	13	10-11	28%	9%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	13	Feyenoord	13	18-21	36%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
20	12	Juventus	12	9-7	55%	24%	11%	4.2%	2.1%
21	12	Celtic	12	13-14	17%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	11	Man City	11	18-14	51%	21%	12%	7%	3.4%
23	11	Sporting	11	13-12	43%	13%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
24	11	Brugge	11	7-11	29%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	19	Lazio	19	17-5	100%	79%	52%	33%	17%
2	19	Bilbao	19	15-7	100%	77%	48%	29%	14%
3	18	Man United	18	16-9	100%	71%	37%	19%	9%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-9	100%	76%	46%	27%	13%
5	16	Frankfurt	16	14-10	100%	56%	26%	11%	6%
6	15	Lyon	15	16-8	100%	61%	32%	15%	8%
7	15	Olympiakos	15	9-3	100%	40%	14%	4.3%	2.1%
8	14	Rangers	14	16-10	100%	36%	11%	3.0%	1.5%
9	14	Bodoe Glimt	14	14-11	41%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
10	14	Anderlecht	14	14-12	53%	13%	4.9%	1.8%	< 1%
11	14	Steaua	14	10-9	30%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	13	Ajax	13	16-8	59%	20%	8%	3.1%	1.5%
13	13	Sociedad	13	13-9	74%	37%	18%	9%	4.3%
14	13	Galatasaray	13	19-16	71%	33%	15%	7%	3.3%
15	12	Roma	12	10-6	66%	46%	24%	12%	6%
16	12	Viktoria Plzen	12	13-12	46%	22%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
17	12	Ferencvaros	12	15-15	22%	7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
18	11	Porto	11	13-11	66%	49%	29%	16%	8%
19	11	Alkmaar	11	13-13	31%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
20	11	Midtjylland	11	9-9	24%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
21	11	St Gillis	11	8-8	62%	20%	8%	3.0%	1.5%
22	10	PAOK	10	12-10	49%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
23	10	Twente	10	8-9	48%	9%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
24	10	Fenerbahce	10	9-11	58%	16%	6%	2.5%	1.2%

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	18	Chelsea	18	26-5	100%	95.5%	83%	69%	34%
2	14	Guimaraes	14	13-6	100%	76%	38%	15%	7%
3	13	Fiorentina	13	18-7	100%	93%	73%	52%	26%
4	13	Rapid Wien	13	10-5	100%	61%	21%	5%	2.6%
5	13	Djurgarden	13	11-7	100%	51%	16%	3.4%	1.7%
6	13	Lugano	13	11-7	100%	52%	16%	3.6%	1.8%
7	12	Legia	12	13-5	100%	36%	14%	4.1%	2.0%
8	11	Cercle Brugge	11	14-7	100%	38%	15%	4.7%	2.3%
9	11	Jagiellonia	11	10-5	64%	12%	4.2%	1.1%	< 1%
10	11	Shamrock	11	12-9	34%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	11	APOEL	11	8-5	56%	13%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
12	10	Paphos	10	11-7	61%	16%	5%	1.2%	< 1%
13	10	Panathinaikos	10	10-7	90%	56%	24%	8%	3.8%
14	10	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	7-6	79%	35%	9%	1.7%	< 1%
15	10	Betis	10	6-5	67%	49%	31%	16%	8%
16	10	Heidenheim	10	7-7	47%	26%	12%	3.9%	1.9%
17	9	Gent	9	8-8	43%	26%	12%	4.7%	2.3%
18	8	FC Kobenhavn	8	8-9	43%	25%	12%	4.5%	2.3%
19	8	Vikingur	8	7-8	17%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Borac Banja Luka	8	4-7	14%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Celje	7	13-13	34%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Omonia	7	7-7	49%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Molde	7	10-11	66%	13%	4.9%	1.4%	< 1%
24	7	Backa Topola	7	10-13	36%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	96.5%	19.73	13.57	26.29
ITA	47%	16.45	11	23.38
ESP	28%	15.68	10.43	23.5
POR	19%	15.12	10.7	24.3
BEL	5.0%	13.85	10.3	22.7
CYP	2.3%	13.78	11.83	21
GRE	1.4%	12.89	9.38	21.63
NED	< 1%	11.37	8.33	20
GER	< 1%	11.78	8.69	17.94
FRA	< 1%	11.7	9.07	16.29
TUR	< 1%	10.36	8.3	15.9
NOR	< 1%	9.05	7.38	16.38

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 281 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	12%	33%	34%	17%	4.0%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	30%	69%	95%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 273 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	2.3%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3.7%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	27%	60%	86%	97.2%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 270 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	7%	22%	33%	25%	10%	1.4%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	18%	50%	81%	96%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 269 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	3.5%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1.6%
Chance if	2.1%	11%	36%	71%	94%	99.7%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 220 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	8%	36%	41%	14%	1.3%
Chance if	< 1%	1.9%	20%	63%	94%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 199 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	38%	45%	16%	1.6%
Chance if	2.2%	17%	59%	97%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 153 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	8%	33%	42%	17%
Chance if	< 1%	3.0%	22%	53%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 106 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	< 1%	10%	37%	43%	9%
Chance if	3%	13%	35%	61%	77%

Number of quarterfinalists from BEL; 97 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	27%	48%	21%	3.6%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	12%	47%

Number of semifinalists from BEL; 86 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	63%	33%	4.6%
Chance if	< 1%	7%	44%

PL: Bournemouth hottest form in the league.

Bournemouth is the hottest team in the league with 11 points in the last five matches. Newcastle, Forest, and Man City are also in positive trends taking more points than expected.

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Forest: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Tottenham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 6.8 less than expected
Southampton: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Fulham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
53	Liverpool	86.2	+52	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
47	Arsenal	78.1	+40	< 1%	99.99%	99.92%	99.70%	98.9%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	99.70%
41	Man City	69.6	+30	< 1%	98.3%	95.1%	89%	77%	< 1%	1.2%	10%	88%
40	Chelsea	65.5	+23	< 1%	91%	80%	63%	42%	< 1%	3.8%	31%	62%
41	Newcastle	64.7	+18	< 1%	88%	74%	55%	33%	< 1%	10%	32%	54%
44	Forest	64.5	+6	< 1%	84%	68%	49%	29%	< 1%	9%	33%	48%
40	Bournemouth	61.5	+16	< 1%	70%	48%	28%	13%	< 1%	15%	39%	27%
37	Aston Villa	58.6	+0	< 1%	40%	23%	12%	5%	< 1%	18%	27%	13%
34	Brighton	54.0	+3	< 1%	13%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	10%	2.4%
33	Fulham	52.2	+0	< 1%	8%	3.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	7%	1.1%
31	Brentford	50.2	-1	< 1%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.6%	2.8%	< 1%
29	Man United	48.6	-6	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	2.6%	9%
29	Crystal Palace	48.5	-6	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	4.2%	< 1%
27	West Ham	46.2	-19	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Tottenham	46.0	+11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	2.6%	13%
23	Everton	41.4	-16	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Wolves	33.3	-26	44%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leicester	30.9	-36	72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Ipswich	29.8	-38	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	17.9	-53	99.84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Europa League: Clinching Scenarios

Nine teams clinched a spot in the playoff round. Nine points will likely suffice, possibly eight, and definitely ten points with a positive goal difference. To finish top-8 and get a seeded spot in round of 16, one probably need 15 points; 14 might be enough if it having a great goal difference (+10 or so). Below are the various clinching scenarios for tonight's matches.

Clinching Scenarios

• Bilbao clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Besiktas (84%)
• Lazio clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Sociedad (80%)
• Bodoe Glimt clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against M Tel Aviv (77%)
• Porto clinch knockout stage if they win against Olympiakos (66%)
• St Gillis clinch knockout stage if they win against Braga (54%)
• Viktoria Plzen clinch knockout stage if they win against Anderlecht (44%)
• Roma clinch knockout stage if they win against Alkmaar (43%)
• Sociedad clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Lazio (40%)
• Anderlecht clinch Top8 if they win against Viktoria Plzen (32%)
• Alkmaar clinch knockout stage if they win against Roma and RFS and Ajax do not draw  (28%)
• Fenerbahce clinch knockout stage if they win against Lyon and Razgrad win against Midtjylland (19%)
• Olympiakos clinch knockout stage if they win against Porto (15%)
• Ferencvaros clinch knockout stage if they win against Frankfurt (11%)
• Lyon clinch Top8 if they win against Fenerbahce and Hoffenheim win against Tottenham (10%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Bilbao	20	17-5	100%	100%	99.98%	>99.99%	71%	45%	28%	14%
2	16	Lazio	20	17-5	100%	100%	99.95%	>99.99%	74%	49%	32%	16%
3	14	Anderlecht	17	15-10	100%	100%	84%	94%	45%	17%	6%	2.8%
4	13	Lyon	16	20-8	100%	>99.99%	89%	97.1%	61%	32%	16%	8%
5	12	Man United	16	15-9	100%	99.10%	78%	94%	59%	32%	16%	8%
6	13	Frankfurt	16	16-11	100%	99.92%	82%	94%	54%	26%	11%	6%
7	12	Galatasaray	15	21-15	100%	99.16%	68%	90%	49%	23%	10%	5%
8	11	Tottenham	15	15-9	100%	97.9%	63%	92%	61%	38%	22%	11%
9	10	Ajax	14	18-9	>99.99%	93%	43%	78%	36%	15%	6%	2.8%
10	11	Rangers	14	14-11	100%	83%	21%	61%	20%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
11	10	Sociedad	13	14-10	99.97%	80%	15%	74%	38%	20%	9%	4.6%
12	10	Bodoe Glimt	13	11-10	99.74%	69%	10%	49%	14%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
13	9	Roma	12	11-6	99.15%	73%	17%	75%	42%	23%	12%	6%
14	8	Porto	12	15-11	96.7%	68%	6%	75%	44%	26%	15%	8%
15	9	Olympiakos	12	7-5	98.1%	59%	5%	52%	19%	7%	2.1%	1.1%
16	11	Steaua	12	9-8	>99.99%	63%	11%	37%	7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Viktoria Plzen	12	13-16	95.9%	41%	3.0%	44%	14%	4.5%	1.3%	< 1%
18	8	St Gillis	11	7-6	89%	38%	1.2%	50%	20%	8%	3.0%	1.5%
19	8	Alkmaar	11	14-15	84%	31%	< 1%	38%	11%	3.6%	1.0%	< 1%
20	8	Fenerbahce	11	10-12	83%	29%	< 1%	46%	18%	8%	2.8%	1.4%
21	9	Ferencvaros	10	14-14	93%	36%	2.7%	27%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Midtjylland	10	7-10	61%	12%	< 1%	21%	5.0%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	PAOK	9	11-9	58%	10%	< 1%	22%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
24	4	Slavia Praha	8	6-7	34%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	8%	3.3%	1.4%	< 1%
25	6	Hoffenheim	8	6-9	36%	3.7%	< 1%	14%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
26	7	Braga	8	11-15	48%	7%	< 1%	21%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
27	7	Elfsborg	8	9-14	37%	2.5%	< 1%	9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	4	Twente	7	10-11	29%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	3.5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	6	M Tel Aviv	7	9-16	26%	3.4%	< 1%	7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	6	Besiktas	7	9-19	16%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	4	Malmoe	6	8-14	6%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	2	Nice	6	8-15	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Razgrad	6	5-13	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	3	Karabakh Agdam	6	7-18	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	2	RFS	2	6-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	7-7	13	14-12	16	18-6
5%	10	15-18	12	17-11	16	19-13
25%	9	8-9	12	9-7	15	13-5
50%	9	13-17	12	13-13	15	10-5
75%	8	12-10	11	16-13	14	18-8
95%	8	10-14	11	15-16	14	15-11
99%	8	9-15	11	8-11	14	8-6