Europa League: Clinching Scenarios

Nine teams clinched a spot in the playoff round. Nine points will likely suffice, possibly eight, and definitely ten points with a positive goal difference. To finish top-8 and get a seeded spot in round of 16, one probably need 15 points; 14 might be enough if it having a great goal difference (+10 or so). Below are the various clinching scenarios for tonight's matches.

Clinching Scenarios

• Bilbao clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Besiktas (84%)
• Lazio clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Sociedad (80%)
• Bodoe Glimt clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against M Tel Aviv (77%)
• Porto clinch knockout stage if they win against Olympiakos (66%)
• St Gillis clinch knockout stage if they win against Braga (54%)
• Viktoria Plzen clinch knockout stage if they win against Anderlecht (44%)
• Roma clinch knockout stage if they win against Alkmaar (43%)
• Sociedad clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Lazio (40%)
• Anderlecht clinch Top8 if they win against Viktoria Plzen (32%)
• Alkmaar clinch knockout stage if they win against Roma and RFS and Ajax do not draw  (28%)
• Fenerbahce clinch knockout stage if they win against Lyon and Razgrad win against Midtjylland (19%)
• Olympiakos clinch knockout stage if they win against Porto (15%)
• Ferencvaros clinch knockout stage if they win against Frankfurt (11%)
• Lyon clinch Top8 if they win against Fenerbahce and Hoffenheim win against Tottenham (10%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Bilbao	20	17-5	100%	100%	99.98%	>99.99%	71%	45%	28%	14%
2	16	Lazio	20	17-5	100%	100%	99.95%	>99.99%	74%	49%	32%	16%
3	14	Anderlecht	17	15-10	100%	100%	84%	94%	45%	17%	6%	2.8%
4	13	Lyon	16	20-8	100%	>99.99%	89%	97.1%	61%	32%	16%	8%
5	12	Man United	16	15-9	100%	99.10%	78%	94%	59%	32%	16%	8%
6	13	Frankfurt	16	16-11	100%	99.92%	82%	94%	54%	26%	11%	6%
7	12	Galatasaray	15	21-15	100%	99.16%	68%	90%	49%	23%	10%	5%
8	11	Tottenham	15	15-9	100%	97.9%	63%	92%	61%	38%	22%	11%
9	10	Ajax	14	18-9	>99.99%	93%	43%	78%	36%	15%	6%	2.8%
10	11	Rangers	14	14-11	100%	83%	21%	61%	20%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
11	10	Sociedad	13	14-10	99.97%	80%	15%	74%	38%	20%	9%	4.6%
12	10	Bodoe Glimt	13	11-10	99.74%	69%	10%	49%	14%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
13	9	Roma	12	11-6	99.15%	73%	17%	75%	42%	23%	12%	6%
14	8	Porto	12	15-11	96.7%	68%	6%	75%	44%	26%	15%	8%
15	9	Olympiakos	12	7-5	98.1%	59%	5%	52%	19%	7%	2.1%	1.1%
16	11	Steaua	12	9-8	>99.99%	63%	11%	37%	7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Viktoria Plzen	12	13-16	95.9%	41%	3.0%	44%	14%	4.5%	1.3%	< 1%
18	8	St Gillis	11	7-6	89%	38%	1.2%	50%	20%	8%	3.0%	1.5%
19	8	Alkmaar	11	14-15	84%	31%	< 1%	38%	11%	3.6%	1.0%	< 1%
20	8	Fenerbahce	11	10-12	83%	29%	< 1%	46%	18%	8%	2.8%	1.4%
21	9	Ferencvaros	10	14-14	93%	36%	2.7%	27%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Midtjylland	10	7-10	61%	12%	< 1%	21%	5.0%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	PAOK	9	11-9	58%	10%	< 1%	22%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
24	4	Slavia Praha	8	6-7	34%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	8%	3.3%	1.4%	< 1%
25	6	Hoffenheim	8	6-9	36%	3.7%	< 1%	14%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
26	7	Braga	8	11-15	48%	7%	< 1%	21%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
27	7	Elfsborg	8	9-14	37%	2.5%	< 1%	9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	4	Twente	7	10-11	29%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	3.5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	6	M Tel Aviv	7	9-16	26%	3.4%	< 1%	7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	6	Besiktas	7	9-19	16%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	4	Malmoe	6	8-14	6%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	2	Nice	6	8-15	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Razgrad	6	5-13	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	3	Karabakh Agdam	6	7-18	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	2	RFS	2	6-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	7-7	13	14-12	16	18-6
5%	10	15-18	12	17-11	16	19-13
25%	9	8-9	12	9-7	15	13-5
50%	9	13-17	12	13-13	15	10-5
75%	8	12-10	11	16-13	14	18-8
95%	8	10-14	11	15-16	14	15-11
99%	8	9-15	11	8-11	14	8-6