CL: Eighteen teams clinched the playoff and two deciders in the final round

Eighteen teams have clinched a spot in the playoffs and nine teams are fighting over the remaining six slots. PSG and Stuttgart play an almost deciding last match; PSG need a point to clinch playoff, while Stuttgart clinch a slot if they win - or if they draw and Zagreb lose against Milan. Despite only having 8 points, Man City have it their own hands and win would secure a spot in the playoff since PSG and Stuttgart play. Brugge most likely clinch a spot with a draw against Man City or they can be helped by Milan and the match in Stuttgart does not finish with a draw.

Liverpool and Barcelona have secured a seeded spot in top-8.  16 points and a good goal difference will most likely suffice, so Arsenal, Inter, Atletico and Milan all have good chances to avoid the playoff round.

 
Clinching Scenarios

• Inter clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Monaco (89%)
• Arsenal clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Girona (78%)
• Sporting clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Bologna (78%)
• PSV clinch knockout stage if Stuttgart and Paris SG do not draw  (76%)
• Man City clinch knockout stage if they win against Brugge (71%)
• Paris SG clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Stuttgart (68%)
• Brugge clinch knockout stage if Milan draw (or win) against Dinamo Zagreb and Stuttgart and Paris SG do not draw  (62%)
• Atletico clinch Top8 if they win against Salzburg (61%)
• Milan clinch Top8 if they win against Dinamo Zagreb (61%)
• Stuttgart clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Paris SG and Milan draw (or win) against Dinamo Zagreb (46%)
• Benfica clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Juventus (43%)
• Atalanta clinch Top8 if they win against Barcelona (30%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Liverpool	22	18-5	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	52%	34%	17%
2	18	Barcelona	19	28-13	100%	100%	100%	100%	58%	28%	13%	6%
3	16	Arsenal	19	15-2	100%	100%	99.99%	>99.99%	71%	46%	28%	14%
4	16	Inter	19	10-1	100%	100%	97.7%	99.55%	71%	47%	29%	15%
5	15	Atletico	18	18-12	100%	100%	79%	92%	48%	21%	8%	4.2%
6	15	Milan	18	15-10	100%	100%	76%	90%	42%	17%	6%	3.0%
7	13	Leverkusen	16	15-7	100%	99.28%	77%	92%	57%	29%	14%	7%
8	13	Aston Villa	16	11-5	100%	91%	55%	77%	33%	11%	3.4%	1.7%
9	13	Lille	16	12-9	100%	81%	32%	68%	29%	10%	3.4%	1.7%
10	14	Atalanta	15	18-4	100%	100%	36%	80%	44%	23%	12%	6%
11	12	Dortmund	15	21-11	100%	91%	10%	58%	20%	7%	2.4%	1.2%
12	12	Bayern	15	20-11	100%	96.9%	7%	69%	32%	16%	8%	3.8%
13	12	Real Madrid	15	18-12	100%	73%	1.6%	72%	41%	24%	13%	7%
14	12	Juventus	15	10-5	100%	74%	< 1%	58%	24%	11%	4.2%	2.1%
15	10	Sporting	13	13-11	91%	32%	< 1%	47%	19%	7%	2.5%	1.2%
16	13	Feyenoord	13	18-17	100%	52%	12%	47%	15%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%
17	13	Monaco	13	15-14	100%	43%	7%	48%	17%	5.0%	1.3%	< 1%
18	13	Brest	13	12-11	100%	49%	8%	40%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
19	11	PSV	12	13-10	>99.99%	28%	< 1%	47%	16%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
20	12	Celtic	12	12-12	100%	22%	< 1%	29%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
21	8	Man City	11	18-15	71%	< 1%	< 1%	44%	23%	13%	7%	3.4%
22	10	Paris SG	11	12-10	83%	29%	< 1%	51%	26%	13%	6%	3.0%
23	10	Stuttgart	11	13-14	67%	7%	< 1%	24%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
24	11	Brugge	11	6-9	94%	12%	< 1%	31%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
25	10	Benfica	10	15-14	82%	18%	< 1%	35%	10%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
26	8	Dinamo Zagreb	8	11-20	13%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	7	Shakhtar	7	8-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	14-15	14	15-12	16	18-8
5%	11	13-14	14	12-10	16	13-4
25%	11	14-19	13	17-13	16	11-5
50%	10	14-13	13	15-12	16	15-11
75%	10	11-11	13	13-11	16	12-9
95%	10	13-16	13	17-17	15	21-12
99%	10	12-16	13	17-18	15	13-6