PL: Bournemouth in the CL race (19%)

Bournemouth importantly won against Newcastle in the CL race and have another important match in the CL race when they host Nottingham Forest on Saturday. Another important match in the CL race is City hosting Chelsea.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
50	Liverpool	85.9	+52	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
44	Arsenal	77.1	+40	< 1%	99.96%	99.84%	99.42%	98.1%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	99.42%
38	Man City	68.5	+29	< 1%	96.5%	92%	83%	68%	< 1%	1.9%	13%	83%
40	Chelsea	66.3	+24	< 1%	92%	83%	69%	49%	< 1%	3.1%	26%	68%
44	Forest	65.5	+10	< 1%	87%	75%	58%	38%	< 1%	7%	28%	56%
38	Newcastle	63.6	+17	< 1%	80%	65%	46%	26%	< 1%	13%	34%	44%
37	Bournemouth	60.2	+11	< 1%	55%	36%	20%	9%	< 1%	16%	32%	19%
36	Aston Villa	59.5	+1	< 1%	46%	29%	16%	7%	< 1%	15%	28%	17%
34	Brighton	55.8	+4	< 1%	22%	12%	5%	2.0%	< 1%	13%	15%	5%
33	Fulham	54.0	+2	< 1%	13%	6%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	10%	2.5%
29	Crystal Palace	50.3	-4	< 1%	3.2%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	5%	< 1%
24	Tottenham	48.2	+13	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	3.3%	11%
28	Brentford	48.2	-2	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	1.3%	< 1%
26	Man United	46.6	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	8%
26	West Ham	46.1	-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Everton	39.3	-17	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Wolves	34.0	-26	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Ipswich	30.1	-38	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	28.5	-38	84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	18.8	-52	99.65%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for CL race
Bournemouth vs Forest (5.4%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Forest	48%	57%	71%
Bournemouth	26%	15%	10%
Man City vs Chelsea (4.4%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Chelsea	62%	70%	82%
Man City	88%	79%	72%
Southampton vs Newcastle (2.8%)	Home Win (21%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (57%)
Newcastle	31%	38%	52%
Forest	60%	58%	55%
Chelsea	71%	69%	66%

 Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Liverpool	86%	10%	4.7%	Ipswich
Wolves	19%	21%	60%	Arsenal
Southampton	21%	22%	57%	Newcastle
Brighton	54%	22%	24%	Everton
Bournemouth	50%	23%	27%	Forest
Man City	58%	21%	21%	Chelsea
Tottenham	68%	18%	14%	Leicester
Crystal Palace	52%	23%	26%	Brentford
Aston Villa	57%	22%	22%	West Ham
Fulham	51%	23%	26%	Man United
Everton	19%	21%	60%	Liverpool

Most likely combo of teams in CL

18%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
12%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
8%	Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.7%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.0%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Newcastle
3.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.8%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
2.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
2.1%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

59%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
20%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
13%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
3.8%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
2.4%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton