PL: Newcastles vs Bournmout in the CL race

A couple of matches interesting for the CL race this weekend. Liverpools gap down to Arsenal has decreased to 6.5 in average points.

Hot Teams
Forest: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.8 more than expected
Newcastle: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.7 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 less than expected
Tottenham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.4 less than expected
Leicester: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
47	Liverpool	84.9	+51	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
43	Arsenal	78.4	+42	< 1%	99.98%	99.92%	99.67%	98.9%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	99.66%
35	Man City	67.7	+24	< 1%	95.8%	90%	79%	62%	< 1%	2.3%	16%	79%
37	Chelsea	65.6	+24	< 1%	92%	82%	66%	45%	< 1%	3.3%	29%	65%
38	Newcastle	65.5	+21	< 1%	91%	81%	65%	44%	< 1%	7%	26%	63%
41	Forest	64.8	+11	< 1%	87%	74%	55%	35%	< 1%	7%	30%	54%
35	Aston Villa	59.1	-0	< 1%	49%	30%	16%	7%	< 1%	15%	31%	17%
34	Bournemouth	58.1	+8	< 1%	44%	25%	13%	5%	< 1%	17%	28%	12%
31	Brighton	53.9	+2	< 1%	17%	8%	3.3%	1.2%	< 1%	11%	12%	3.2%
30	Fulham	52.5	+0	< 1%	11%	5.0%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	9%	1.8%
24	Tottenham	49.5	+14	< 1%	4.7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	5%	12%
28	Brentford	49.0	-1	< 1%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	2.7%	< 1%
26	Crystal Palace	48.5	-6	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	4.9%	< 1%
26	Man United	48.3	-5	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	3.2%	8%
26	West Ham	47.7	-18	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	1.2%	< 1%
17	Everton	37.8	-18	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Wolves	34.7	-25	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Ipswich	30.8	-33	72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	29.7	-37	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	19.3	-52	99.58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Bournemouth (4.6%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Newcastle	71%	58%	49%
Bournemouth	8%	13%	22%
Chelsea vs Wolves (2.2%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Chelsea	69%	57%	50%
Forest	52%	56%	58%
Newcastle	62%	65%	67%
Forest vs Southampton (2.1%)	Home Win (70%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (13%)
Forest	58%	45%	39%
Newcastle	62%	65%	67%
Chelsea	63%	67%	68%