Monday, January 13, 2025

PL: Which English teams will win anything this spring?

Below are the updated probabilities for teams to win titles later this spring. Liverpool have a chance on all four tournaments and a decent (>1%) chance to win all of them. Chelsea have a great chance in Conference League, while Newcastle greatest chance is in the League Cup. Arsenal have 14% to win the league, less than 10% to turn it around in the league cup, and their greatest chance is in CL. Tottenham have decent chance in both the League Cup and Europa League, while United's chance is in the Europa League.


Titles

TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTrebleQuadruple
Liverpool96.7%70%27%3.2%44%8%3.2%
Arsenal32%4.0%< 1%



Man City23%1.0%< 1%
< 1%< 1%
Chelsea37%1.4%< 1%
< 1%

Forest1.9%< 1%

< 1%

Newcastle37%2.0%< 1%
< 1%

Bournemouth1.7%< 1%

< 1%

Aston Villa6%< 1%< 1%
< 1%< 1%
Fulham1.5%< 1%

< 1%

Brighton< 1%





Tottenham27%2.3%< 1%



Man United10%< 1%




Crystal Palace3.1%





Everton< 1%





Wolves< 1%





Ipswich< 1%





Leicester< 1%





Southampton< 1%





 

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