PL: Forest and magpies hottest in the league.

 

Hot Teams
Forest: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 8.1 more than expected
Newcastle: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.5 more than expected
Ipswich: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Leicester: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Man City: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
46	Liverpool	85.7	+51	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
40	Arsenal	77.6	+42	< 1%	99.97%	99.87%	99.47%	98.2%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	99.46%
34	Man City	68.4	+25	< 1%	96.9%	93%	83%	67%	< 1%	2.0%	14%	83%
36	Chelsea	66.5	+25	< 1%	94%	87%	73%	53%	< 1%	2.5%	24%	72%
40	Forest	64.7	+10	< 1%	87%	75%	55%	34%	< 1%	7%	32%	54%
35	Newcastle	64.7	+19	< 1%	89%	78%	59%	37%	< 1%	7%	30%	57%
33	Bournemouth	57.9	+7	< 1%	45%	26%	13%	5%	< 1%	18%	30%	12%
32	Aston Villa	57.4	-1	< 1%	39%	22%	11%	4.4%	< 1%	17%	26%	12%
30	Fulham	53.7	+1	< 1%	18%	9%	3.5%	1.2%	< 1%	13%	15%	3.3%
28	Brighton	52.4	+0	< 1%	13%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	10%	2.1%
24	Tottenham	50.1	+14	< 1%	7%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	7%	12%
27	Brentford	49.1	-2	< 1%	4.7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	4.4%	< 1%
23	Man United	47.6	-5	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	2.3%	8%
23	Crystal Palace	46.9	-8	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	4.2%	< 1%
23	West Ham	46.3	-18	1.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	1.1%	< 1%
17	Everton	39.2	-17	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Wolves	35.3	-23	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Ipswich	32.0	-31	69%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	31.0	-35	76%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	19.9	-52	99.60%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Liverpool	95.8%	64%	21%	2.3%	29%	5%	2.3%
Arsenal	64%	21%	3.1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Man City	18%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	38%	1.9%	< 1%		< 1%
Forest	3.7%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	14%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Bournemouth	1.6%	< 1%			< 1%
Aston Villa	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Fulham	2.2%	< 1%			< 1%
Brighton	< 1%
Tottenham	20%	1.3%	< 1%
Brentford	< 1%
Man United	9%	< 1%
Crystal Palace	2.9%
West Ham	< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Leicester	< 1%
Southampton	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Everton vs Liverpool (2%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
Liverpool	79%	83%	89%
Arsenal	20%	16%	11%

	Liverpool			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
97	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
96	2.3%	1.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
95	3.9%	1.5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	6%	2.1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%
93	9%	3.1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	13%	3.8%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	95%
91	18%	4.8%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	88%
90	23%	6%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	88%
89	30%	6%	99.3%	1.1%	< 1%	79%
88	37%	7%	98.7%	1.9%	< 1%	72%
87	45%	8%	97.5%	3.4%	1.5%	65%
86	52%	8%	95.7%	5%	2.1%	56%
85	60%	8%	93%	8%	2.8%	48%
84	67%	7%	89%	12%	3.9%	39%
83	74%	7%	84%	17%	4.7%	32%
82	79%	6%	78%	23%	6%	25%
81	84%	4.9%	72%	29%	7%	19%
80	88%	4.1%	63%	36%	7%	14%
79	92%	3.2%	55%	44%	8%	10%
78	94%	2.5%	46%	52%	8%	7%
77	96.0%	1.9%	37%	60%	8%	4.3%
76	97.4%	1.3%	27%	67%	7%	2.7%
75	98.3%	< 1%	19%	74%	7%	1.5%
74	98.9%	< 1%	13%	79%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	93%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	78%
League cup winners	100%	93%	90%
Sixth team	99.92%	98.9%	< 1%
Seventh team	98.0%	81%	1.1%
Eighth team	79%	6%	1.5%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	19%	21%	60%	Liverpool

Most likely combo of teams in CL

19%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
17%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
10%	Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Newcastle
2.9%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.0%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle
1.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

47%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
20%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
15%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
7%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
5%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
1.9%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves