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After half the season Liverpool are in pole position and win the league in 87% of the simulations and on average their gap is almost 9 points. Arsenal is the only challenger on the title winning the league in 13% of the simulations. Behind the top duo, Man City and Chelsea are the main contenders for the CL slots (83% and 78%, respectively) challenged by Newcastle and Forest (50% and 47%, respectively). Tottenham and Man United qualify for the CL in a substantial fraction of the simulations, but their path is more likely coming through winning the Europa League. In the bottom the three promoted teams are predicted to return back to the Championship and they do so in more than half of the simulations. Both Leicester and Ipswich manage to extend the PL contract in 25% of the time, whereas Southampton do so in about one of 300 simulations.
Hot Teams
Forest: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 8.3 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Ipswich: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Cold Teams
Man City: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Man United: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Leicester: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Brighton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 45 | Liverpool | 87.1 | +53 | < 1% | 100% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.99% | 87% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 39 | Arsenal | 78.4 | +43 | < 1% | 99.98% | 99.92% | 99.70% | 98.9% | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.70% |
| 31 | Man City | 67.7 | +23 | < 1% | 96.1% | 92% | 83% | 67% | < 1% | 2.1% | 13% | 83% |
| 35 | Chelsea | 66.9 | +25 | < 1% | 95.2% | 90% | 79% | 62% | < 1% | 2.0% | 18% | 78% |
| 37 | Forest | 63.0 | +7 | < 1% | 81% | 67% | 48% | 28% | < 1% | 9% | 32% | 47% |
| 32 | Newcastle | 62.9 | +18 | < 1% | 83% | 70% | 51% | 30% | < 1% | 9% | 31% | 50% |
| 30 | Bournemouth | 56.8 | +6 | < 1% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | < 1% | 16% | 26% | 12% |
| 29 | Aston Villa | 56.6 | -1 | < 1% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 4.7% | < 1% | 15% | 24% | 12% |
| 29 | Fulham | 54.9 | +2 | < 1% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2.8% | < 1% | 14% | 20% | 7% |
| 27 | Brighton | 52.4 | -1 | < 1% | 15% | 8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | < 1% | 10% | 11% | 3.1% |
| 24 | Tottenham | 51.7 | +15 | < 1% | 14% | 7% | 2.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 11% | 13% |
| 24 | Brentford | 47.7 | -6 | < 1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | < 1% |
| 22 | Crystal Palace | 47.3 | -8 | < 1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.8% | 4.9% | < 1% |
| 22 | Man United | 47.0 | -7 | 1.1% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 8% |
| 23 | West Ham | 46.8 | -17 | 1.4% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | < 1% |
| 17 | Everton | 40.0 | -17 | 14% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 15 | Wolves | 36.7 | -20 | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 14 | Leicester | 31.6 | -35 | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 15 | Ipswich | 31.6 | -32 | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 6 | Southampton | 21.1 | -47 | 99.36% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Simulated points for winner: 84 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38
Coming Matches
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Tottenham | 44% | 24% | 32% | Newcastle |
| Aston Villa | 68% | 18% | 14% | Leicester |
| Man City | 71% | 17% | 12% | West Ham |
| Southampton | 31% | 24% | 45% | Brentford |
| Crystal Palace | 37% | 24% | 39% | Chelsea |
| Bournemouth | 56% | 22% | 22% | Everton |
| Brighton | 25% | 23% | 53% | Arsenal |
| Fulham | 67% | 18% | 15% | Ipswich |
| Liverpool | 75% | 15% | 10% | Man United |
| Wolves | 40% | 24% | 36% | Forest |
| Everton | 19% | 21% | 60% | Liverpool |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 19% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 17% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City |
| 6% | Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 4.8% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Newcastle |
| 3.7% | Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City |
| 3.4% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City |
| 2.8% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham |
| 2.5% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 2.1% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City |
| 2.1% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 53% | Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton |
| 14% | Leicester, Southampton, Wolves |
| 14% | Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves |
| 6% | Everton, Leicester, Southampton |
| 6% | Everton, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 1.3% | Everton, Southampton, Wolves |
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Fifth team | 100% | >99.99% | 93% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 78% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 93% | 89% |
| Sixth team | 99.92% | 98.9% | 1.2% |
| Seventh team | 98.0% | 81% | 1.4% |
| Eighth team | 79% | 7% | 1.7% |
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