PL: end the year with Europa race matches

 A couple of matches important for the EL race tomorrow and Monday, including Villa vs Brighton and Fulham vs Bournemouth.

Hot Teams
Forest: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 7.1 more than expected
Bournemouth: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man City: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 less than expected
Tottenham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Man United: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
42	Liverpool	84.9	+47	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
36	Arsenal	76.5	+40	< 1%	99.94%	99.83%	99.45%	98.1%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	99.46%
28	Man City	69.6	+27	< 1%	98.5%	96.8%	93%	83%	1.3%	< 1%	6%	93%
35	Chelsea	69.5	+28	< 1%	98.4%	96.5%	92%	82%	1.5%	< 1%	7%	92%
29	Newcastle	59.4	+13	< 1%	65%	51%	33%	12%	< 1%	13%	32%	32%
34	Forest	57.8	-1	< 1%	49%	35%	20%	7%	< 1%	12%	28%	20%
28	Aston Villa	57.5	-0	< 1%	48%	35%	20%	7%	< 1%	12%	27%	21%
23	Tottenham	55.1	+20	< 1%	36%	24%	12%	3.7%	< 1%	15%	22%	25%
29	Bournemouth	54.5	+2	< 1%	29%	18%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	11%	19%	8%
26	Brighton	53.9	+1	< 1%	26%	16%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	10%	18%	8%
28	Fulham	53.8	-0	< 1%	25%	15%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	10%	17%	7%
22	Man United	50.4	-2	< 1%	11%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	8%	12%
24	Brentford	48.8	-5	< 1%	7%	3.5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	6%	1.3%
23	West Ham	48.8	-11	< 1%	6%	2.8%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	4.6%	< 1%
19	Crystal Palace	45.2	-10	2.8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	3.6%	< 1%
17	Everton	41.2	-15	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
14	Wolves	36.9	-21	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	33.6	-32	65%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Ipswich	29.1	-36	89%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	22.8	-45	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Brighton (4.2%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Aston Villa	56%	43%	36%
Brighton	19%	26%	37%
Fulham vs Bournemouth (3.9%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Bournemouth	21%	28%	39%
Fulham	31%	21%	16%
Man United vs Newcastle (2.7%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Newcastle	57%	64%	75%
Man United	24%	18%	16%
Everton vs Forest (2.2%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Forest	41%	47%	60%

 Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	48%	23%	28%	Forest
Tottenham	65%	19%	16%	Wolves
Crystal Palace	65%	19%	16%	Southampton
Fulham	50%	23%	27%	Bournemouth
West Ham	24%	22%	54%	Liverpool
Aston Villa	52%	23%	25%	Brighton
Ipswich	21%	22%	58%	Chelsea
Man United	46%	24%	30%	Newcastle
Brentford	24%	23%	53%	Arsenal
Everton	20%	21%	59%	Liverpool

Most likely combo of teams in CL

18%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
11%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
10%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.4%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.1%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City
3.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

53%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
23%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
8%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
7%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
2.1%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
2.0%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton