PL: Man City more likely to play EL than win the league.

Liverpool have an 8-point gap down to Arsenal in average simulated points. Man City now miss a CL spot (4.9%) more often than they win the league (2.5%). After the top-four it's a tight race between five teams about the fifth CL spot and the two EL spots. Newcastle host Aston Villa in an important match in this race.

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.4 more than expected
Forest: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.3 more than expected
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man City: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 5.4 less than expected
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Wolves: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Ipswich: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
39	Liverpool	84.5	+47	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.91%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
33	Arsenal	76.1	+41	< 1%	99.91%	99.75%	99.25%	97.3%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	99.23%
35	Chelsea	71.6	+31	< 1%	99.20%	98.1%	95.5%	88%	3.6%	< 1%	4.3%	95.1%
27	Man City	71.1	+29	< 1%	99.09%	98.0%	95.1%	87%	2.5%	< 1%	4.0%	95.1%
28	Aston Villa	58.6	+2	< 1%	55%	41%	25%	7%	< 1%	11%	29%	25%
26	Newcastle	58.2	+11	< 1%	56%	41%	24%	7%	< 1%	15%	32%	23%
23	Tottenham	56.5	+21	< 1%	46%	32%	18%	4.8%	< 1%	14%	26%	29%
31	Forest	56.1	-2	< 1%	37%	25%	13%	3.3%	< 1%	12%	24%	12%
28	Bournemouth	55.2	+2	< 1%	33%	21%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	12%	22%	10%
25	Brighton	54.7	+2	< 1%	31%	20%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	11%	20%	9%
22	Man United	51.7	+0	< 1%	16%	9%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	11%	14%
25	Fulham	51.5	-2	< 1%	14%	8%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	12%	3.3%
23	Brentford	48.7	-5	< 1%	7%	3.6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	6%	1.3%
20	West Ham	47.4	-11	1.3%	3.8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	3.3%	< 1%
18	Crystal Palace	45.3	-11	2.7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	3.8%	< 1%
16	Everton	40.6	-17	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
11	Wolves	35.3	-23	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	33.9	-32	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Ipswich	29.3	-37	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	23.9	-45	97.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Aston Villa (4%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Newcastle	30%	20%	14%
Aston Villa	19%	26%	36%

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Man United (2.6%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Wolves	67%	56%	50%
Leicester	38%	43%	46%
Ipswich	12%	15%	16%

 

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	94%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	80%
League cup winners	100%	91%	85%
Sixth team	99.91%	99.03%	3.2%
Seventh team	97.9%	82%	3.1%
Eighth team	79%	10%	2.9%

 Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man City	78%	14%	8%	Everton
Chelsea	64%	20%	17%	Fulham
Newcastle	51%	23%	26%	Aston Villa
Forest	35%	24%	41%	Tottenham
Southampton	32%	24%	45%	West Ham
Bournemouth	49%	23%	28%	Crystal Palace
Wolves	39%	24%	37%	Man United
Liverpool	82%	12%	6%	Leicester
Brighton	53%	23%	24%	Brentford
Arsenal	84%	10%	5%	Ipswich
Everton	20%	21%	59%	Liverpool

Most likely combo of teams in CL

15%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
14%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
12%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.0%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

43%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
29%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
9%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
8%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
2.3%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
1.8%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
1.7%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
1.4%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves