PL: Important match when Wolves visit Leicester

Important match when Wolves visit Leicester and both teams have a 25% swing.

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leicester vs Wolves (7%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Leicester	66%	52%	41%
Wolves	31%	42%	56%

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
36	Liverpool	83.0	+44	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.78%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%
30	Arsenal	75.0	+38	< 1%	99.83%	99.55%	98.7%	95.7%	13%	< 1%	1.1%	98.7%
27	Man City	72.8	+31	< 1%	99.52%	98.9%	97.1%	91%	7%	< 1%	2.4%	97.1%
34	Chelsea	72.3	+31	< 1%	99.36%	98.5%	96.4%	90%	6%	< 1%	3.5%	96.0%
23	Tottenham	57.7	+24	< 1%	56%	42%	26%	7%	< 1%	12%	27%	36%
23	Newcastle	56.9	+7	< 1%	48%	34%	19%	4.3%	< 1%	15%	29%	19%
25	Aston Villa	56.7	+1	< 1%	44%	31%	18%	4.1%	< 1%	10%	26%	18%
24	Brighton	54.9	+2	< 1%	34%	22%	11%	2.3%	< 1%	10%	22%	11%
28	Forest	54.0	-5	< 1%	27%	17%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	9%	19%	8%
22	Man United	53.6	+4	< 1%	27%	17%	8%	1.5%	< 1%	11%	17%	17%
25	Bournemouth	53.1	-2	< 1%	23%	14%	6%	1.0%	< 1%	9%	16%	6%
24	Fulham	52.6	-1	< 1%	21%	13%	6%	1.0%	< 1%	8%	16%	6%
23	Brentford	50.5	-3	< 1%	13%	8%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	10%	3.0%
19	West Ham	48.0	-11	1.2%	5%	2.7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	4.5%	< 1%
18	Crystal Palace	46.2	-7	2.1%	3.3%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	4.8%	< 1%
15	Everton	40.7	-18	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	35.4	-29	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Wolves	33.5	-26	59%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Ipswich	30.4	-34	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Southampton	23.6	-46	97.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 87
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 39

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Aston Villa	29%	23%	48%	Man City
Ipswich	26%	23%	51%	Newcastle
West Ham	46%	24%	30%	Brighton
Brentford	52%	23%	25%	Forest
Crystal Palace	24%	23%	53%	Arsenal
Everton	30%	24%	46%	Chelsea
Man United	55%	22%	23%	Bournemouth
Leicester	44%	24%	32%	Wolves
Fulham	66%	19%	15%	Southampton
Tottenham	32%	24%	44%	Liverpool
Everton	20%	21%	59%	Liverpool

Most likely combo of teams in CL

19%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
12%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
11%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
3.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.7%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.3%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City
3.3%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

41%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
29%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
12%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
7%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
3.0%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves
2.0%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
1.5%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
1.1%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	94%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	80%
League cup winners	100%	84%	77%
Sixth team	99.85%	99.08%	3.8%
Seventh team	96.8%	82%	3.3%
Eighth team	75%	11%	2.9%