Europa and Conference League

Seven teams have practically clinched top24 and a place in the knockout stage and of those Lazio and Bilbao have practically (>99.9%) clinched Top8 and a place in the round of 16.

Europa League

Clinching Scenarios

• Frankfurt clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Ferencvaros (89%)
• Lazio clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Sociedad (82%)
• Bilbao clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Besiktas (80%)
• Galatasaray clinch Top16 if they win against Dynamo Kyiv (72%)
• Man United clinch Top16 if they win against Rangers (67%)
• Porto clinch Top24 if they win against Olympiakos (65%)
• Lyon clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Fenerbahce (54%)
• Bodoe Glimt clinch Top24 if they win against M Tel Aviv (53%)
• Tottenham clinch Top16 if they win against Hoffenheim (49%)
• St Gillis clinch Top24 if they win against Braga (48%)
• Viktoria Plzen clinch Top24 if they win against Anderlecht (46%)
• Ajax clinch Top16 if they win against RFS and Lazio win against Sociedad (45%)
• Roma clinch Top24 if they win against Alkmaar (45%)
• Sociedad clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Lazio (39%)
• Fenerbahce clinch Top24 if they win against Lyon and Slavia Praha draw (or win) against PAOK (31%)
• Alkmaar clinch Top24 if they win against Roma and Frankfurt and Ferencvaros do not draw  (26%)
• Anderlecht clinch Top8 if they win against Viktoria Plzen and Man United draw (or win) against Rangers (26%)
• Olympiakos clinch Top24 if they win against Porto (16%)
• Rangers clinch Top16 if they win against Man United (15%)
• Steaua clinch Top16 if they win against Karabakh Agdam and Lazio win against Sociedad (13%)
• Ferencvaros clinch Top24 if they win against Frankfurt (11%)
• Lyon clinch Top8 if they win against Fenerbahce and Hoffenheim draw against Tottenham (7%)
• Sociedad clinch Top16 if they win against Lazio and Fenerbahce draw against Lyon (4%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Lazio	20	17-5	100%	100%	99.95%	>99.99%	75%	50%	32%	16%
2	16	Bilbao	20	14-3	100%	100%	99.97%	>99.99%	65%	36%	18%	9%
3	14	Anderlecht	17	14-9	100%	100%	82%	93%	44%	16%	6%	2.8%
4	13	Lyon	16	20-10	100%	>99.99%	88%	96.1%	57%	28%	13%	6%
5	12	Man United	16	18-12	100%	99.31%	81%	95.2%	64%	37%	21%	10%
6	13	Frankfurt	16	15-9	100%	99.92%	83%	95.0%	59%	31%	15%	8%
7	11	Tottenham	15	15-8	100%	98.5%	67%	94%	68%	46%	29%	15%
8	12	Galatasaray	15	20-14	100%	99.14%	66%	89%	49%	23%	10%	5.0%
9	10	Ajax	14	16-6	>99.99%	94%	44%	79%	38%	16%	7%	3.3%
10	11	Rangers	14	15-11	100%	85%	22%	61%	21%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
11	10	Sociedad	13	14-10	99.96%	81%	14%	71%	35%	17%	8%	3.8%
12	10	Bodoe Glimt	13	13-13	99.68%	68%	9%	47%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	8	Porto	12	14-10	96.3%	67%	6%	73%	41%	24%	14%	7%
14	9	Roma	12	13-9	98.9%	72%	16%	74%	39%	21%	10%	5%
15	9	Olympiakos	12	6-4	97.9%	59%	5%	52%	18%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
16	11	Steaua	12	13-13	>99.99%	58%	8%	31%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Viktoria Plzen	12	12-13	96.4%	47%	4.1%	49%	16%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
18	9	Ferencvaros	11	14-13	94%	40%	3.1%	32%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
19	8	St Gillis	11	7-7	85%	32%	< 1%	42%	14%	4.8%	1.5%	< 1%
20	8	Alkmaar	11	10-11	81%	28%	< 1%	34%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
21	8	Fenerbahce	11	9-10	85%	33%	< 1%	50%	21%	9%	3.8%	1.9%
22	7	Midtjylland	10	7-10	61%	12%	< 1%	22%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Braga	9	11-14	53%	9%	< 1%	25%	9%	3.1%	1.0%	< 1%
24	7	PAOK	8	12-11	53%	8%	< 1%	19%	4.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Slavia Praha	8	9-10	39%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	11%	5%	2.3%	1.2%
26	6	Hoffenheim	8	7-10	37%	4.0%	< 1%	17%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
27	7	Elfsborg	8	9-15	32%	1.7%	< 1%	7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	4	Twente	7	11-11	31%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
29	6	M Tel Aviv	7	10-17	27%	3.8%	< 1%	9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	6	Besiktas	7	8-17	18%	1.1%	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	2	Nice	6	9-16	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Karabakh Agdam	6	5-15	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Razgrad	6	4-14	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	4	Malmoe	5	9-16	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	2	RFS	2	8-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	8-8	13	14-12	16	19-7
5%	10	7-9	12	14-7	16	14-7
25%	9	9-10	12	8-6	15	15-7
50%	9	6-9	12	12-12	15	11-6
75%	9	8-18	11	15-12	14	19-9
95%	8	11-15	11	12-13	14	15-11
99%	8	10-16	11	7-10	14	8-6

Europa Conference League

Clinching Scenarios

• Betis clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against HJK Helsinki (96%)
• Panathinaikos clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Dinamo Minsk (93%)
• Gent clinch Top16 if they win against Larne (84%)
• APOEL clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against FK Astana (79%)
• Cercle Brugge clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Bueyueksehir (78%)
• Jagiellonia clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Olimpija Ljubljana (78%)
• Fiorentina clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Guimaraes (73%)
• Hearts clinch Top24 if they win against Petrocub (70%)
• Heidenheim clinch Top16 if they win against StGallen (69%)
• Legia clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Djurgarden (64%)
• Rapid Wien clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against FC Kobenhavn (63%)
• Djurgarden clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Legia (60%)
• Guimaraes clinch Top8 if Chelsea draw (or win) against Shamrock and FC Kobenhavn draw (or win) against Rapid Wien (60%)
• Celje clinch Top24 if they win against The New Saints and Cercle Brugge draw (or win) against Bueyueksehir (58%)
• Cercle Brugge clinch Top8 if they win against Bueyueksehir (56%)
• Lugano clinch Top8 if they win against Paphos (52%)
• Borac Banja Luka clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Omonia (52%)
• Omonia clinch Top24 if they win against Borac Banja Luka (48%)
• FC Kobenhavn clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Rapid Wien and Rapid Wien and FC Kobenhavn do not draw  (37%)
• Vikingur clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against LASK (32%)
• Jagiellonia clinch Top8 if they win against Olimpija Ljubljana and Paphos draw (or win) against Lugano (27%)
• Paphos clinch Top16 if they win against Lugano (25%)
• Olimpija Ljubljana clinch Top16 if they win against Jagiellonia (22%)
• Bueyueksehir clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Cercle Brugge and Cercle Brugge and Bueyueksehir do not draw  (22%)
• Mlada Boleslav clinch Top24 if they win against Molde (22%)
• Shamrock clinch Top8 if they win against Chelsea (2%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	15	Chelsea	18	26-6	100%	100%	100%	100%	92%	80%	67%	33%
2	12	Fiorentina	15	18-6	100%	100%	98.3%	99.87%	87%	69%	49%	25%
3	12	Lugano	15	10-5	100%	100%	80%	92%	42%	13%	3.0%	1.5%
4	12	Legia	13	13-3	100%	100%	90%	96.9%	56%	23%	7%	3.7%
5	10	Cercle Brugge	13	14-6	100%	>99.99%	58%	85%	40%	14%	3.8%	1.9%
6	13	Guimaraes	13	15-9	100%	100%	99.80%	99.95%	64%	31%	12%	6%
7	10	Jagiellonia	13	11-5	100%	99.85%	58%	85%	41%	15%	4.2%	2.1%
8	10	APOEL	13	8-4	100%	99.06%	57%	79%	27%	7%	1.1%	< 1%
9	9	Gent	12	11-8	100%	95%	38%	85%	49%	24%	9%	4.7%
10	9	Heidenheim	12	9-8	100%	83%	16%	81%	46%	24%	10%	5%
11	11	Shamrock	11	11-7	100%	100%	6%	34%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	10	Djurgarden	11	9-7	100%	95.2%	36%	70%	23%	6%	1.2%	< 1%
13	10	Rapid Wien	11	8-6	100%	88%	36%	75%	33%	12%	3.1%	1.5%
14	7	Betis	10	8-5	99.84%	85%	< 1%	82%	49%	29%	14%	7%
15	7	Panathinaikos	10	9-8	99.60%	75%	< 1%	66%	28%	11%	3.5%	1.8%
16	9	Paphos	9	11-8	100%	65%	19%	59%	20%	6%	1.2%	< 1%
17	8	FC Kobenhavn	9	9-7	100%	42%	< 1%	69%	35%	17%	6%	3.2%
18	9	Olimpija Ljubljana	9	8-8	100%	43%	8%	52%	17%	5%	1.1%	< 1%
19	6	Hearts	9	7-9	85%	2.0%	< 1%	29%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
20	7	Borac Banja Luka	8	4-7	75%	11%	< 1%	13%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Celje	7	12-11	75%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	6	Omonia	7	9-9	79%	9%	< 1%	32%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	4	Molde	7	7-8	56%	< 1%	< 1%	28%	11%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
24	7	Vikingur	7	6-8	87%	9%	< 1%	17%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Backa Topola	7	7-10	45%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	6	Mlada Boleslav	6	5-8	43%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
27	5	Bueyueksehir	5	9-13	24%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	2	LASK	5	6-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	FK Astana	4	4-9	15%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	HJK Helsinki	4	5-13	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	4	StGallen	4	9-18	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	4	Noah	4	5-15	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	The New Saints	3	4-10	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	3	Dinamo Minsk	3	4-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	7	9-8	10	9-5	13	10-4
5%	7	8-8	10	9-7	13	11-7
25%	7	5-7	10	8-7	12	17-7
50%	7	4-7	10	8-8	12	13-8
75%	7	7-13	9	11-8	12	10-7
95%	6	9-12	9	8-7	11	14-7
99%	6	6-11	9	7-8	11	11-7

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95%	19.87	12.07	27.29
ITA	43%	16.45	10.44	23.75
POR	25%	15.55	9.3	26.9
ESP	17%	15.19	9.29	22.86
BEL	14%	15.07	9.8	24.1
CYP	2.7%	13.28	9.33	22.67
GER	2.6%	13.39	7.75	22.36
GRE	< 1%	10.9	7.13	19.88
FRA	< 1%	11.08	6.93	18.57
NED	< 1%	10.34	6.33	19.08
TUR	< 1%	10.59	7.1	18.4
CZE	< 1%	10.05	7.5	18
SWE	< 1%	9.82	8	17.25
NOR	< 1%	8.2	6.13	15.88
DEN	< 1%	8.24	5.75	15.88

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 250 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	12%	37%	36%	14%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	31%	72%	96%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 244 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	3.6%	19%	36%	29%	11%	1.6%
Chance if	1.8%	9%	31%	63%	89%	98.8%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 239 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.9%	11%	29%	34%	19%	4.6%
Chance if	< 1%	4.2%	21%	50%	77%	93%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 210 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	42%	42%	14%	1.9%
Chance if	5%	27%	69%	97%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 204 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	38%	31%	12%	2.2%
Chance if	< 1%	4.1%	21%	58%	90%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 197 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.6%	11%	28%	34%	19%	5%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	14%	41%	72%	93%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 166 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	3.8%	23%	43%	26%	4.6%
Chance if	< 1%	3.0%	20%	48%	76%

Number of quarterfinalists from BEL; 145 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	13%	38%	36%	12%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	2.8%	17%	46%	81%

Number of semifinalists from BEL; 127 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	50%	40%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	3.0%	17%	53%	88%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 105 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.0%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	32%	69%	93%	99.5%	99.99%	100%	100%