Clinching Scenarios in Europa and Conference League

 

Europa League

Clinching Scenarios

• Tottenham clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Rangers (74%)
• Lyon clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Frankfurt (71%)
• Lazio clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Ajax (66%)
• Bilbao clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Fenerbahce (58%)
• Galatasaray clinch Top16 if they win against Malmoe (50%)
• Rangers clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Tottenham (49%)
• Man United clinch Top24 if they win against Viktoria Plzen (44%)
• Anderlecht clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Slavia Praha (43%)
• Viktoria Plzen clinch Top24 if they win against Man United (32%)
• Frankfurt clinch Top16 if they win against Lyon (29%)
• Ajax clinch Top16 if they win against Lazio and Rangers and Tottenham do not draw  (26%)
• Olympiakos clinch Top24 if they win against Twente and Malmoe draw (or win) against Galatasaray (25%)
• Ferencvaros clinch Top24 if they win against PAOK (24%)
• Steaua clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Hoffenheim and Razgrad draw (or win) against Alkmaar (21%)
• Fenerbahce clinch Top24 if they win against Bilbao and Man United win against Viktoria Plzen (18%)
• Anderlecht clinch Top16 if they win against Slavia Praha and PAOK draw (or win) against Ferencvaros (16%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	13	Lazio	19	16-8	100%	99.98%	94%	98.8%	73%	49%	32%	16%
2	13	Bilbao	19	12-4	100%	99.96%	94%	98.3%	63%	35%	18%	9%
3	13	Frankfurt	17	15-9	100%	99.83%	89%	96.5%	60%	31%	16%	8%
4	11	Galatasaray	17	19-16	100%	97.8%	74%	91%	51%	24%	10%	5%
5	10	Ajax	16	17-7	>99.99%	96.8%	68%	87%	45%	19%	8%	3.9%
6	10	Tottenham	16	17-9	>99.99%	98.0%	75%	95%	70%	47%	30%	15%
7	10	Lyon	15	19-8	>99.99%	95.6%	63%	88%	50%	25%	11%	6%
8	9	Man United	15	15-9	99.76%	92%	57%	88%	57%	34%	19%	9%
9	11	Anderlecht	15	14-12	>99.99%	89%	46%	75%	33%	12%	4.3%	2.1%
10	10	Rangers	13	16-11	99.90%	78%	27%	62%	22%	7%	2.1%	1.0%
11	7	Sociedad	13	11-9	95.5%	65%	11%	65%	32%	16%	7%	3.5%
12	9	Ferencvaros	12	18-15	96.5%	60%	13%	40%	9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
13	8	Olympiakos	12	10-7	94%	62%	13%	54%	20%	7%	2.2%	1.1%
14	9	Viktoria Plzen	12	14-12	96.3%	63%	18%	56%	20%	7%	2.0%	1.0%
15	8	Fenerbahce	12	10-8	93%	61%	17%	62%	29%	13%	5%	2.7%
16	6	Roma	12	7-6	87%	49%	9%	61%	33%	18%	9%	4.4%
17	10	Steaua	12	10-10	98.3%	50%	10%	30%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	5	Porto	11	21-14	89%	53%	6%	66%	38%	23%	13%	6%
19	7	Bodoe Glimt	11	12-10	89%	47%	6%	38%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
20	7	Alkmaar	11	12-14	78%	32%	4.1%	34%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Slavia Praha	10	9-7	71%	23%	< 1%	44%	20%	10%	4.5%	2.3%
22	7	Braga	10	9-11	65%	19%	1.7%	32%	12%	4.2%	1.4%	< 1%
23	7	Midtjylland	10	7-9	66%	19%	1.4%	24%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
24	5	St Gillis	9	11-12	58%	17%	< 1%	28%	10%	3.4%	1.1%	< 1%
25	5	Hoffenheim	9	10-13	52%	12%	< 1%	25%	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
26	4	PAOK	8	9-16	28%	3.6%	< 1%	10%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	6	Besiktas	8	10-18	28%	5%	< 1%	7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Twente	7	11-13	33%	5.0%	< 1%	14%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
29	2	Nice	7	9-14	18%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	3.8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	M Tel Aviv	7	8-14	21%	2.9%	< 1%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	4	Elfsborg	7	9-16	15%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Karabakh Agdam	7	8-18	15%	1.9%	< 1%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Malmoe	6	8-17	8%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	2	Razgrad	5	10-15	6%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Dynamo Kyiv	3	6-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	2	RFS	3	6-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	12-11	13	14-10	16	20-8
5%	10	9-10	13	11-9	16	17-10
25%	10	15-24	12	16-13	15	17-9
50%	9	14-16	12	9-8	15	14-10
75%	9	12-17	11	13-9	14	16-8
95%	8	12-15	11	10-10	14	14-11
99%	8	9-14	11	10-13	13	17-8

Europa Conference League

Clinching Scenarios

• Chelsea clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against FK Astana (93%)
• Fiorentina clinch Top16 if they win against LASK (83%)
• Gent clinch Top24 if they win against Backa Topola (78%)
• Shamrock clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Borac Banja Luka (75%)
• Guimaraes clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against StGallen (68%)
• Jagiellonia clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Mlada Boleslav (59%)
• Rapid Wien clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Omonia (59%)
• Legia clinch Top8 if they win against Lugano (57%)
• Paphos clinch Top24 if they win against Celje (57%)
• Shamrock clinch Top16 if they win against Borac Banja Luka (52%)
• Heidenheim clinch Top16 if they win against Bueyueksehir (46%)
• Djurgarden clinch Top24 if they win against Vikingur (46%)
• Olimpija Ljubljana clinch Top16 if they win against Cercle Brugge (43%)
• APOEL clinch Top24 if they win against Noah (41%)
• Cercle Brugge clinch Top24 if they win against Olimpija Ljubljana (32%)
• Vikingur clinch Top24 if they win against Djurgarden (30%)
• Borac Banja Luka clinch Top24 if they win against Shamrock (25%)
• Lugano clinch Top16 if they win against Legia (21%)
• FC Kobenhavn clinch Top24 if they win against Hearts and HJK Helsinki win against Molde (15%)
• Hearts clinch Top24 if they win against FC Kobenhavn (12%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	12	Chelsea	18	25-5	100%	100%	99.99%	>99.99%	92%	80%	67%	33%
2	12	Legia	15	14-1	100%	100%	98.6%	99.60%	59%	25%	8%	3.9%
3	9	Fiorentina	13	15-8	100%	99.25%	87%	99.01%	86%	68%	49%	24%
4	10	Jagiellonia	13	13-6	100%	99.89%	80%	93%	48%	18%	4.9%	2.4%
5	10	Rapid Wien	13	7-3	100%	98.3%	65%	87%	42%	15%	3.8%	1.9%
6	10	Guimaraes	13	11-8	100%	98.9%	64%	91%	55%	27%	10%	5%
7	9	Heidenheim	13	9-6	100%	96.1%	72%	94%	62%	33%	14%	7%
8	9	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	8-5	100%	87%	44%	75%	29%	8%	1.7%	< 1%
9	9	Lugano	12	12-10	100%	87%	47%	78%	33%	10%	2.4%	1.2%
10	6	Gent	12	10-8	99.16%	87%	39%	84%	49%	24%	9%	4.6%
11	8	Shamrock	11	12-14	99.97%	62%	7%	31%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	7	Cercle Brugge	10	11-6	99.68%	74%	24%	70%	30%	11%	2.8%	1.4%
13	4	Betis	10	9-6	97.1%	68%	< 1%	79%	47%	28%	14%	7%
14	7	APOEL	10	8-5	98.1%	75%	24%	60%	18%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%
15	7	Djurgarden	10	9-8	98.2%	66%	18%	58%	18%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%
16	4	Panathinaikos	10	8-8	93%	55%	< 1%	61%	26%	10%	3.2%	1.6%
17	6	Paphos	9	10-8	92%	49%	11%	52%	17%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%
18	7	Borac Banja Luka	9	6-6	92%	42%	7%	25%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	6	Hearts	9	7-8	89%	30%	3.5%	37%	9%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
20	5	FC Kobenhavn	8	14-9	89%	38%	4.8%	64%	32%	16%	6%	3.0%
21	7	Vikingur	8	7-8	91%	35%	4.1%	24%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	4	Celje	7	14-12	81%	18%	< 1%	31%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Molde	7	8-9	61%	12%	< 1%	34%	13%	4.6%	1.3%	< 1%
24	4	Backa Topola	7	9-13	51%	4.3%	< 1%	13%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Noah	7	3-12	33%	6%	< 1%	8%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Omonia	6	7-8	44%	7%	< 1%	19%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	Mlada Boleslav	6	5-10	23%	1.9%	< 1%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	2	LASK	5	5-9	5%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	StGallen	5	10-16	26%	3.0%	< 1%	11%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	FK Astana	5	3-9	19%	1.3%	< 1%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	2	Bueyueksehir	4	6-11	7%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	The New Saints	3	4-8	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	HJK Helsinki	3	5-12	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Dinamo Minsk	3	5-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	1	Petrocub	1	2-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Larne	0	4-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	7-10	10	10-6	13	14-9
5%	7	12-11	10	9-7	13	10-6
25%	7	8-10	10	8-8	12	13-7
50%	7	7-11	9	13-9	12	9-5
75%	7	7-15	9	9-8	12	9-8
95%	6	6-9	9	6-9	11	9-6
99%	5	13-13	8	9-8	11	16-16