CL: Liverpool 15% favorites

Liverpool are the favorites and win CL in 15% of the simulations, followed by Inter and Arsenal.

At least 10 points will likely be required to reach the playoff. To avoid the playoff and advance directly to the Round of 16, it will likely require 16-17 points.

Clinching Scenarios

• Arsenal clinch Top16 if they win against Dinamo Zagreb (86%)
• Liverpool clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Lille (86%)
• Real Madrid clinch Top24 if they win against Salzburg (84%)
• Celtic clinch Top24 if they win against Young Boys and Arsenal draw (or win) against Dinamo Zagreb (68%)
• Juventus clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Brugge (67%)
• Inter clinch Top16 if they win against Sparta Praha (64%)
• Monaco clinch Top24 if they win against Aston Villa (48%)
• Bayern clinch Top16 if they win against Feyenoord (44%)
• Brest clinch Top16 if they win against Shakhtar (40%)
• Milan clinch Top16 if they win against Girona and Shakhtar draw (or win) against Brest (37%)
• Dortmund clinch Top16 if they win against Bologna (37%)
• Benfica clinch Top24 if they win against Barcelona (36%)
• Sporting clinch Top24 if they win against RB Leipzig (36%)
• Leverkusen clinch Top16 if they win against Atletico (34%)
• Brugge clinch Top24 if they win against Juventus (33%)
• Man City clinch Top24 if they win against Paris SG and Arsenal win against Dinamo Zagreb (32%)
• Feyenoord clinch Top24 if they win against Bayern (32%)
• Aston Villa clinch Top16 if they win against Monaco (29%)
• Barcelona clinch Top8 if they win against Benfica and Monaco draw (or win) against Aston Villa (28%)
• Atletico clinch Top16 if they win against Leverkusen and RB Leipzig draw (or win) against Sporting (27%)
• Lille clinch Top16 if they win against Liverpool (14%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	18	Liverpool	22	16-3	100%	100%	99.99%	>99.99%	71%	46%	29%	15%
2	15	Barcelona	18	24-9	100%	>99.99%	89%	96.5%	58%	31%	15%	8%
3	13	Arsenal	17	18-4	100%	99.80%	90%	97.5%	67%	42%	25%	12%
4	13	Inter	17	13-4	100%	98.8%	81%	95.2%	66%	42%	25%	13%
5	12	Bayern	16	23-11	100%	98.6%	63%	88%	52%	27%	13%	7%
6	13	Leverkusen	16	19-8	100%	98.7%	70%	89%	50%	25%	11%	6%
7	12	Dortmund	16	20-10	100%	95.8%	50%	78%	35%	14%	5.0%	2.5%
8	13	Aston Villa	16	16-10	100%	94%	53%	76%	30%	10%	3.1%	1.6%
9	12	Milan	16	15-10	>99.99%	92%	46%	76%	34%	13%	4.8%	2.4%
10	13	Brest	16	14-12	100%	84%	30%	52%	12%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
11	13	Lille	16	12-10	100%	84%	27%	63%	25%	9%	2.8%	1.4%
12	12	Atletico	15	19-13	100%	88%	36%	71%	31%	12%	4.3%	2.2%
13	11	Atalanta	14	18-6	>99.99%	89%	23%	74%	40%	21%	10%	5%
14	11	Juventus	14	14-8	99.97%	78%	23%	67%	31%	13%	5%	2.6%
15	9	Real Madrid	13	18-13	99.09%	62%	< 1%	68%	38%	21%	11%	6%
16	10	Sporting	13	15-11	99.33%	59%	9%	61%	28%	13%	5%	2.7%
17	10	Monaco	13	13-13	97.5%	30%	2.9%	42%	14%	4.4%	1.3%	< 1%
18	10	Benfica	13	15-16	98.0%	34%	4.0%	46%	16%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
19	8	Man City	12	16-11	93%	30%	< 1%	69%	44%	28%	18%	9%
20	9	Celtic	12	12-11	94%	21%	< 1%	28%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Feyenoord	12	17-18	94%	22%	2.4%	36%	11%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
22	8	PSV	11	13-11	81%	16%	< 1%	38%	14%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
23	10	Brugge	11	10-14	85%	11%	< 1%	25%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Paris SG	10	9-9	63%	8%	< 1%	36%	17%	9%	3.9%	1.9%
25	7	Stuttgart	10	13-14	68%	6%	< 1%	24%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
26	8	Dinamo Zagreb	8	14-21	24%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	Crvena Zvezda	6	13-24	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	4	Shakhtar	5	7-16	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	Sparta Praha	5	8-24	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	2	Bologna	4	5-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	Girona	4	5-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Sturm Graz	4	9-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Salzburg	4	4-24	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	15-14	14	17-7	18	17-10
5%	11	13-15	14	15-10	17	16-7
25%	10	10-10	14	11-10	16	23-11
50%	10	11-14	13	18-15	16	17-10
75%	10	6-13	13	13-11	16	15-10
95%	9	12-17	13	9-12	15	21-10
99%	8	8-9	12	12-9	15	14-8