African Worldcup Qualifiers

North African countries Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco have nearly qualified.

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	13	Egypt	25.2	+21	99.91%	99.59%	97.8%	98.2%
5	8	Burkina Faso	17.2	+9	71%	29%	1.9%	3.7%
5	8	Sierra Leone	14.3	-1	17%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
5	6	Guinea-Bissau	13.2	-0	11%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Ethiopia	8.9	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Djibouti	2.7	-22	< 1%

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	9	Senegal	21.5	+16	95.1%	89%	73%	79%
5	10	Democratic Republic of Congo	18.7	+6	66%	43%	20%	23%
5	11	Sudan	17.3	+4	38%	21%	7%	7%
5	4	Togo	10.1	-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	Mauritania	8.4	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	South Sudan	4.5	-17	< 1%

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	10	South Africa	19.5	+7	89%	72%	69%	70%
5	6	Nigeria	15.6	+5	54%	19%	16%	16%
5	8	Benin	15.4	+2	43%	15%	12%	13%
5	7	Rwanda	12.6	-2	12%	2.4%	2.1%	2.1%
5	3	Zimbabwe	8.9	-6	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	5	Lesotho	8.9	-6	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	9	Cameroon	19.8	+13	82%	69%	56%	58%
5	10	Cape Verde	18.2	+3	55%	36%	23%	24%
5	7	Angola	17.2	+7	47%	28%	17%	18%
5	8	Libya	15	+1	15%	6%	3.9%	4.0%
5	4	Mauritius	6.1	-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Eswatini	5.2	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Morocco	27.6	+28	99.97%	99.93%	99.11%	99.43%
3	6	Tanzania	18.2	+3	73%	37%	< 1%	2.0%
3	6	Niger	14.1	-1	16%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
4	3	Zambia	12.6	+1	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Congo	7	-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	0	Eritrea	6.8	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	13	Ivory Coast	24.3	+21	99.39%	98.3%	84%	86%
5	12	Gabon	20.5	+8	89%	70%	15%	18%
5	6	Kenya	14.2	+7	8%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
5	7	Burundi	12.8	-1	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	4	Gambia	11.6	+1	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Seychelles	1.1	-37

Group G

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	12	Algeria	24	+16	99.02%	97.6%	88%	90%
5	12	Mozambique	19.8	+5	79%	56%	11%	13%
5	7	Guinea	15.4	+3	16%	8%	< 1%	1.4%
5	6	Uganda	13.3	-1	4.1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
5	6	Botswana	12.1	-2	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Somalia	2	-20

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	13	Tunisia	24.5	+15	99.49%	98.4%	94%	95%
5	11	Namibia	18	+6	67%	33%	4.9%	5%
5	6	Equatorial Guinea	15.4	0	24%	7%	< 1%	1.1%
5	7	Liberia	12.6	-1	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	6	Malawi	12.3	-1	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	São Tomé and Príncipe	2.5	-19	< 1%

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	12	Ghana	19.8	+8	75%	61%	46%	47%
5	8	Mali	18.9	+11	72%	55%	37%	40%
5	9	Comoros	16.6	+2	29%	17%	9%	10%
5	10	Madagascar	16.1	+4	24%	14%	7%	7%
5	4	Central African Republic	9.7	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Chad	3.8	-19	< 1%

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The four best runner-ups play knockout playoff round
to determine which team will play in intercontinental
playoff.

Runners-up

		Average when 2nd		Probabilities
Group	Team	Point	GD	2nd	Playoff	1st
E	Morocco	22	20	< 1%	< 1%	99.11%
F	Ivory Coast	21.4	18	15%	14%	84%
G	Algeria	20.9	12	11%	10%	88%
A	Egypt	20.6	15	2.1%	1.8%	97.8%
H	Tunisia	20.5	10	5%	4.1%	94%
F	Gabon	20.4	8	74%	54%	15%
G	Mozambique	20.2	5	68%	45%	11%
B	Senegal	19.7	14	22%	16%	73%
E	Tanzania	19.3	5	73%	36%	< 1%
I	Ghana	19.1	8	28%	15%	46%
B	Democratic Republic of Congo	19.1	6	45%	23%	20%
H	Namibia	18.9	7	62%	28%	4.9%
I	Mali	18.9	11	35%	18%	37%
D	Cape Verde	18.9	4	32%	12%	23%
I	Comoros	18.8	5	19%	8%	9%
D	Cameroon	18.8	12	26%	13%	56%
B	Sudan	18.8	7	32%	14%	7%
G	Guinea	18.7	7	15%	7%	< 1%
I	Madagascar	18.6	7	17%	7%	7%
H	Equatorial Guinea	18.4	4	23%	7%	< 1%
D	Angola	18.3	9	31%	11%	17%
A	Burkina Faso	18.2	10	69%	27%	1.9%
F	Kenya	18.1	12	7%	3.0%	< 1%
D	Libya	18.1	5	11%	2.6%	3.9%
G	Uganda	17.9	5	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Burundi	17.8	6	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Niger	17.7	4	16%	3.8%	< 1%
A	Sierra Leone	17.5	3	17%	3.1%	< 1%
C	South Africa	17.5	5	20%	2.8%	69%
G	Botswana	17.5	5	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Central African Republic	17.2	2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Malawi	17.2	5	5%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Liberia	17.1	5	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Gambia	17.1	8	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Benin	17	4	30%	2.6%	12%
A	Guinea-Bissau	16.9	4	11%	1.0%	< 1%
E	Zambia	16.9	6	10%	1.4%	< 1%
C	Nigeria	16.7	7	38%	3.2%	16%
B	Togo	16.4	5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Rwanda	16.3	2	10%	< 1%	2.1%
E	Eritrea	16.1	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Mauritius	15.9	-0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Mauritania	15.7	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Congo	15.6	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	South Sudan	15.4	-3	< 1%	< 1%
C	Lesotho	15.4	2	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Zimbabwe	15.3	2	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Ethiopia	15.3	1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Eswatini	15	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Chad	15	-5	< 1%	< 1%
A	Djibouti	14.5	-6	< 1%	< 1%
H	São Tomé and Príncipe	14.3	-3	< 1%	< 1%