Brazil nearly qualified after late winner against Colombia

It looks like the top 6 teams will grab the direct tickets to the World Cup and the bottom 4 will fight over the single playoff spot. Argentina can still miss qualifications mathematically but it does not occur in one of the one million simulations since it requires that Argentina lose all remaining five matches and that Bolivia win all their remaining matches. They can clinch it also mathematically with a point against Brazil On Tuesday. Apart from that we have the following clinching scenarios:

Brazil clinch qualifications if they win against Argentina and Uruguay draw (or win) against Bolivia (15%)
Ecuador clinch qualifications if they win against Chile and Paraguay win against Colombia (6%)
Uruguay clinch playoff if they win against Bolivia (59%)
Colombia clinch playoff if they win against Paraguay and Uruguay draw (or win) against Bolivia (57%)
Paraguay clinch playoff if they win against Colombia (12%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-7	Top-6	World Cup
13	28	Argentina	38.7	+21	100%	100%	100%
13	20	Uruguay	30	+12	>99.99%	99.85%	99.97%
13	21	Brazil	30	+11	>99.99%	99.94%	99.99%
13	25	Ecuador	29.3	+9	>99.99%	99.92%	99.98%
13	19	Colombia	28.8	+9	99.99%	99.71%	99.94%
13	20	Paraguay	24.7	-2	99.86%	95.7%	98.4%
13	12	Venezuela	17.4	-8	50%	2.8%	31%
13	13	Bolivia	17.1	-21	33%	1.6%	18%
13	10	Peru	14.6	-14	12%	< 1%	7%
13	9	Chile	13.4	-16	5%	< 1%	3.0%

First six team qualify for the World Cup finals. The 7th team qualify for the intercontinental playoff.