| Probabilities | |||
| Team | At least Playoff | Winner | World Cup |
| New Zealand | 100% | 89% | 93% |
| New Caledonia | 100% | 11% | 20% |
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Friday, March 21, 2025
New Zealand vs New Caledonia in decider
New Zealand and New Caledonia won their semifinals are thus guaranteed at least playoff. They'll play the deciding final on Monday. The winner clinch qualification and the loser will play in the intercontinental playoff. New Zealand are huge favourites and New Caledonia are deems small chances in the playoff - advancing to the world cup in 20% of the simulations.
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