Uruguay can clinch qualifications

 

South America
Uruguay clinch qualifications if they win against Argentina and Bolivia (19%)
Uruguay clinch playoff if they win against Bolivia (59%)
Ecuador clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Chile and win against Venezuela (48%)
Colombia clinch playoff if they win against Paraguay and Chile draw against Ecuador (17%)
Brazil clinch playoff if they win against Argentina and Colombia draw (or win) against Paraguay (16%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-7	Top-6	World Cup
12	25	Argentina	37.3	+21	100%	100%	100%
12	20	Uruguay	31.2	+13	>99.99%	99.87%	99.97%
12	19	Colombia	29.8	+9	99.98%	99.71%	99.94%
12	18	Brazil	28.7	+10	99.96%	99.37%	99.86%
12	22	Ecuador	28.5	+9	99.93%	99.06%	99.74%
12	17	Paraguay	23.5	-2	97.2%	85%	93%
12	13	Bolivia	18	-20	39%	7%	24%
12	12	Venezuela	18	-9	49%	9%	33%
12	9	Chile	14.3	-16	8%	1.3%	5%
12	7	Peru	13.5	-15	6%	< 1%	4.1%

First six team qualify for the World Cup finals. The 7th team qualify for the intercontinental playoff.