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Japan clinched qualifications with a win against Bahrain. Iran are likely to clinch qualifications on Tuesday and South Korea can secure qualifications if they win and Iraq fail to beat Palestine.
Group A
Iran clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Uzbekistan (85%)
| Average Simulation | Probabilities | ||||||
| m | p | Country | Point | GD | Top-4 | Top-2 | World Cup |
| 7 | 19 | Iran | 25.9 | +14 | 100% | >99.99% | >99.99% |
| 7 | 16 | Uzbekistan | 20.4 | +4 | 100% | 90% | 96.4% |
| 7 | 10 | United Arab Emirates | 14.5 | +7 | 99.77% | 8% | 44% |
| 7 | 10 | Qatar | 13.2 | -5 | 98.5% | 1.6% | 38% |
| 7 | 2 | North Korea | 5.6 | -10 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 7 | 3 | Kyrgyzstan | 5.5 | -11 | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% |
Group B
South Korea clinch qualifications if they win against Jordan and Palestine draw (or win) against Iraq (36%)
| Average Simulation | Probabilities | ||||||
| m | p | Country | Point | GD | Top-4 | Top-2 | World Cup |
| 7 | 15 | South Korea | 21.6 | +12 | 100% | 99.10% | 99.81% |
| 7 | 12 | Jordan | 15.8 | +5 | 99.96% | 58% | 81% |
| 7 | 12 | Iraq | 15.7 | +1 | 99.82% | 39% | 69% |
| 7 | 7 | Oman | 11.4 | -3 | 77% | 3.4% | 28% |
| 7 | 5 | Kuwait | 7.8 | -9 | 13% | < 1% | 1.7% |
| 7 | 3 | Palestine | 6.8 | -6 | 10% | < 1% | 2.1% |
Group C
| Average Simulation | Probabilities | ||||||
| m | p | Country | Point | GD | Top-4 | Top-2 | World Cup |
| 7 | 19 | Japan | 26 | +28 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 7 | 10 | Australia | 14.8 | +6 | 98.4% | 77% | 92% |
| 7 | 9 | Saudi Arabia | 11.5 | -5 | 80% | 13% | 39% |
| 7 | 6 | Bahrain | 10.8 | -6 | 66% | 7% | 29% |
| 7 | 6 | China | 9.5 | -12 | 34% | 3.2% | 10% |
| 7 | 6 | Indonesia | 8.5 | -11 | 21% | < 1% | 2.9% |
Top-2 advance to the World Cup.
3rd and 4th teams advance to Round 4.
The six teams in Round 4 play two groups of three teams.
The winners qualify for the world cup.
Runners-up play playoff in which the winners advance.
to the intercontinental playoff.
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