Iran qualifies after draw with Uzbekistan

Iran clinched qualification from Group A. Uzbekistan is in a good (93%) position to gran the second spot from Group A.  South Korea is a point from securing qualification and the the match between Jordan (76%) and Iraq (20%) will likely decide who takes the second spot. In Group C, Australia is in a good (97%) position and the final match against Saudi Arabia might become a decider.

 

Group A
Uzbekistan clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against United Arab Emirates (67%)
Qatar clinch round 4 if North Korea draw (or win) against Kyrgyzstan and United Arab Emirates draw (or win) against Kyrgyzstan (64%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
8	20	Iran	24.7	+13	100%	100%	100%
8	17	Uzbekistan	20.7	+6	100%	93%	97.5%
8	13	United Arab Emirates	16.1	+8	100%	7%	46%
8	10	Qatar	11.4	-7	94%	< 1%	37%
8	6	Kyrgyzstan	7.6	-8	6%	< 1%	< 1%
8	2	North Korea	4.3	-11

Group B
South Korea clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Kuwait (96%)
Jordan clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Oman and win against Iraq (33%)
Iraq clinch qualifications if they win against South Korea and Jordan (7%)
Iraq clinch round 4 if Kuwait draw (or win) against Palestine (64%)
Oman clinch round 4 if they draw (or win) against Palestine and South Korea draw (or win) against Kuwait (60%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
8	16	South Korea	20.4	+10	100%	99.88%	99.98%
8	13	Jordan	16.2	+7	100%	76%	89%
8	12	Iraq	14.1	-0	99.01%	20%	60%
8	10	Oman	12.7	-2	88%	4.8%	35%
8	6	Palestine	8.7	-5	13%	< 1%	2.9%
8	5	Kuwait	6.6	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C
Australia clinch qualifications if they win against Saudi Arabia (47%)
Saudi Arabia clinch round 4 if they draw (or win) against Bahrain and Japan draw (or win) against Indonesia (51%)
Indonesia clinch round 4 if they win against China and Australia draw (or win) against Saudi Arabia (26%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
8	20	Japan	24.4	+26	100%	100%	100%
8	13	Australia	15.8	+7	100%	91%	97.4%
8	10	Saudi Arabia	12.2	-3	93%	9%	44%
8	9	Indonesia	10.5	-9	51%	< 1%	6%
8	6	Bahrain	9.1	-8	35%	< 1%	13%
8	6	China	8.8	-13	21%	< 1%	4.7%

Top-2 advance to the World Cup.
3rd and 4th teams advance to Round 4.
The six teams in Round 4 play two groups of three teams.
The winners qualify for the world cup.
Runners-up play playoff in which the winners advance.
to the intercontinental playoff.