World Cup Qualifier - Europe

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a play for the remaining four slots
 

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Germany	14.7	+12	100%	98.8%	89%	95%
0	0	Slovakia	9.2	+1	72%	72%	9%	23%
0	0	Northern Ireland	6.2	-4	97.2%	23%	1.6%	11%
0	0	Luxembourg	3.9	-9	7%	7%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Switzerland	10.8	+4	78%	78%	49%	59%
0	0	Sweden	9.2	+1	99.96%	59%	26%	46%
0	0	Slovenia	8.7	+1	53%	53%	22%	29%
0	0	Kosovo	4.7	-6	11%	11%	2.7%	3.5%

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Denmark	11.4	+5	81%	79%	47%	61%
0	0	Greece	10.4	+4	68%	68%	33%	45%
0	0	Scotland	9.1	+2	54%	50%	20%	29%
0	0	Belarus	2.9	-11	2.1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	France	15.1	+14	100%	99.36%	88%	95.9%
0	0	Ukraine	10.4	+4	85%	85%	11%	36%
0	0	Iceland	5.9	-5	14%	14%	< 1%	2.2%
0	0	Azerbaijan	2.8	-13	1.8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Spain	15.9	+16	100%	99.73%	96.2%	99.14%
0	0	Turkey	8.5	-0	63%	63%	2.9%	21%
0	0	Georgia	6.8	-4	33%	33%	< 1%	8%
0	0	Bulgaria	3	-12	4.0%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Portugal	14.4	+12	100%	98.2%	83%	93%
0	0	Hungary	10.2	+3	79%	79%	15%	34%
0	0	Ireland	6.6	-4	21%	21%	2.0%	4.6%
0	0	Armenia	2.9	-12	2.3%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Netherlands	20.4	+20	99.09%	99.03%	87%	93%
2	6	Poland	15.9	+5	84%	84%	12%	28%
2	4	Finland	11.4	-1	17%	17%	1.0%	2.5%
2	1	Lithuania	5.1	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Malta	3.8	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Austria	20	+22	96.3%	96.3%	84%	89%
2	6	Bosnia and Herzegovina	15	+4	49%	49%	7%	9%
2	3	Romania	14.7	+11	>99.99%	55%	9%	30%
2	3	Cyprus	7.6	-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	San Marino	0.8	-30	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Italy	19.1	+16	97.5%	97.3%	59%	79%
2	6	Norway	18.1	+14	100%	97.1%	40%	61%
2	3	Israel	10.6	-3	6%	5%	< 1%	1.3%
2	3	Estonia	6.9	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Moldova	3	-18	79%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%

Group J

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Belgium	18.7	+18	93%	93%	70%	79%
2	4	Wales	16	+11	100%	80%	25%	44%
2	4	North Macedonia	13	+6	99.80%	25%	5.0%	18%
2	3	Kazakhstan	8.8	-4	2.4%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Liechtenstein	0.4	-30

Group K

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	England	20.9	+21	100%	99.19%	84%	94%
0	0	Serbia	16.6	+13	83%	82%	15%	38%
2	3	Albania	12.7	+4	18%	18%	< 1%	3.8%
2	3	Latvia	6.8	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Andorra	1.1	-25	< 1%	< 1%

Group L

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Croatia	19.8	+20	97.3%	97.1%	71%	83%
2	6	Czechia	17.5	+13	100%	89%	27%	47%
2	6	Montenegro	12.6	-0	13%	13%	1.8%	2.7%
2	0	Faroe Islands	5.8	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Gibraltar	2.1	-24	< 1%	< 1%

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	< 1%	99.73%	96.2%	99.14%
A	Germany	1.2%	98.8%	89%	95%
F	Portugal	1.8%	98.2%	83%	93%
D	France	< 1%	99.36%	88%	95.9%
K	England	< 1%	99.19%	84%	94%
I	Norway	2.9%	97.1%	40%	61%
J	Wales	20%	80%	25%	44%
L	Czechia	11%	89%	27%	47%
H	Romania	45%	55%	9%	30%
B	Sweden	41%	59%	26%	46%
J	North Macedonia	74%	25%	5.0%	18%
A	Northern Ireland	75%	23%	1.6%	11%
I	Moldova	79%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%
H	San Marino	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	< 1%	97.3%	59%	79%
G	Netherlands	< 1%	99.03%	87%	93%
C	Denmark	1.6%	79%	47%	61%
L	Croatia	< 1%	97.1%	71%	83%
C	Scotland	3.6%	50%	20%	29%
K	Serbia	< 1%	82%	15%	38%
F	Hungary	< 1%	79%	15%	34%
J	Belgium	< 1%	93%	70%	79%
G	Poland	< 1%	84%	12%	28%
I	Israel	< 1%	5%	< 1%	1.3%