World Cup Qualifier - Africa

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The four best runner-ups play knockout playoff round
to determine which team will play in intercontinental
playoff.

Group A
Egypt clinch qualifications if they win against Ethiopia and Burkina Faso (39%)
Egypt clinch playoff if they win against Ethiopia and Burkina Faso (39%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	16	Egypt	25.6	+20	99.99%	99.80%	97.4%	97.9%
6	11	Burkina Faso	18.7	+10	89%	45%	2.5%	5%
6	8	Sierra Leone	14	+1	10%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Guinea-Bissau	12	-1	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Ethiopia	9.3	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	1	Djibouti	2.4	-25

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	12	Senegal	21.8	+15	97.9%	92%	70%	78%
6	13	Democratic Republic of Congo	20	+8	87%	62%	28%	32%
6	12	Sudan	15.8	+3	15%	6%	1.6%	1.7%
6	4	Togo	9.9	-2	< 1%
6	2	Mauritania	7.2	-8	< 1%
6	3	South Sudan	5	-15	< 1%

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	13	South Africa	21	+9	98.7%	92%	92%	92%
6	7	Nigeria	14.4	+4	50%	7%	6%	6%
6	8	Benin	14.2	0	38%	3.3%	2.1%	2.1%
6	8	Rwanda	11.5	-4	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	4	Zimbabwe	9.3	-4	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Lesotho	9.2	-5	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	12	Cameroon	20.5	+13	92%	77%	53%	57%
6	13	Cape Verde	20.4	+5	89%	66%	45%	46%
6	7	Angola	15.2	+5	12%	4.8%	1.2%	1.6%
6	8	Libya	14.4	0	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	5	Mauritius	6.5	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	2	Eswatini	4	-12	< 1%

Group E
Morocco clinch qualifications if they win against Niger and Niger win against Tanzania (18%)
Morocco clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Zambia and win against Niger (78%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	15	Morocco	28.5	+27	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.97%
4	6	Tanzania	17.9	+4	74%	32%	< 1%	1.1%
4	6	Niger	13.7	-0	15%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
4	3	Zambia	12.6	+1	11%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Congo	7	-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	0	Eritrea	6.8	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F
Ivory Coast clinch playoff if they win against Burundi and Gabon (33%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	16	Ivory Coast	25	+21	99.93%	99.53%	79%	82%
6	15	Gabon	22.4	+9	98.6%	89%	21%	24%
6	10	Burundi	13.1	+2	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Kenya	12.7	+6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	4	Gambia	11	+2	< 1%
6	0	Seychelles	0.9	-39

Group G

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	15	Algeria	24.6	+18	99.87%	99.41%	96.5%	97.2%
6	12	Mozambique	19.4	+2	79%	46%	3.2%	5%
6	9	Uganda	14.9	0	10%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
6	7	Guinea	14	+2	8%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
6	9	Botswana	12.4	-3	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	1	Somalia	1.8	-19

Group H
Tunisia clinch playoff if they win against Liberia and Equatorial Guinea (31%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	16	Tunisia	25	+15	99.89%	99.29%	97.3%	97.6%
6	12	Namibia	17.8	+6	74%	27%	2.6%	3.0%
6	7	Equatorial Guinea	14.8	-0	14%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
6	10	Liberia	13.3	-1	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Malawi	11.9	-1	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	0	São Tomé and Príncipe	2	-19

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	15	Ghana	21.3	+11	92%	81%	71%	72%
6	9	Mali	17.8	+10	62%	35%	19%	21%
6	12	Comoros	17.2	+1	35%	18%	9%	9%
6	10	Madagascar	14.8	+1	10%	3.4%	1.1%	1.1%
6	5	Central African Republic	10	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	0	Chad	3.4	-18

Runners-up

		Average when 2nd		Probabilities
Group	Team	Point	GD	2nd	Playoff	1st
F	Ivory Coast	22.5	18	21%	20%	79%
E	Morocco	21.9	16	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%
F	Gabon	21.7	9	78%	69%	21%
A	Egypt	21.4	14	2.5%	2.4%	97.4%
G	Algeria	20.9	13	3.3%	2.9%	96.5%
H	Tunisia	20.7	9	2.6%	2.0%	97.3%
B	Senegal	20.1	13	28%	22%	70%
G	Mozambique	20.1	3	75%	43%	3.2%
B	Democratic Republic of Congo	19.5	7	58%	34%	28%
D	Cape Verde	19.4	4	44%	21%	45%
D	Cameroon	19.4	12	38%	24%	53%
E	Tanzania	19.1	5	73%	32%	< 1%
I	Ghana	19.1	8	20%	10%	71%
A	Burkina Faso	19	10	86%	43%	2.5%
I	Comoros	19	4	27%	9%	9%
B	Sudan	18.6	6	13%	4.8%	1.6%
F	Burundi	18.6	8	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Mali	18.5	11	44%	16%	19%
H	Namibia	18.5	7	72%	24%	2.6%
I	Madagascar	18.2	6	9%	2.3%	1.1%
D	Angola	18.1	9	11%	3.6%	1.2%
G	Uganda	18	4	10%	1.8%	< 1%
D	Libya	18	5	7%	1.4%	< 1%
G	Guinea	17.7	6	8%	1.6%	< 1%
A	Sierra Leone	17.7	5	10%	1.9%	< 1%
H	Equatorial Guinea	17.6	3	14%	1.8%	< 1%
F	Kenya	17.4	11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Botswana	17.4	3	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Niger	17.2	5	15%	2.2%	< 1%
C	South Africa	17.2	4	7%	< 1%	92%
H	Liberia	17.2	4	7%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Central African Republic	16.9	2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Zambia	16.8	6	11%	1.2%	< 1%
H	Malawi	16.7	4	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Benin	16.2	3	36%	1.2%	2.1%
A	Guinea-Bissau	16.2	4	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Eritrea	16.1	-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Gambia	16	7	< 1%	< 1%
B	Togo	15.9	5	< 1%	< 1%
C	Nigeria	15.8	6	44%	1.3%	6%
E	Congo	15.6	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Ethiopia	15.5	4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Mauritius	15.4	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Rwanda	15.4	1	9%	< 1%	< 1%
B	South Sudan	15	-2	< 1%	< 1%
C	Lesotho	14.7	2	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Zimbabwe	14.7	2	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Mauritania	14	2	< 1%	< 1%
D	Eswatini	14	0	< 1%	< 1%