Argentina qualifies after 4-1 win against Brazil

 

Uruguay clinch qualifications if they win against Venezuela and Venezuela draw (or win) against Bolivia (57%)
Ecuador clinch qualifications if they win against Peru and Uruguay draw (or win) against Venezuela (42%)
Brazil clinch qualifications if they win against Paraguay and Ecuador (26%)
Paraguay clinch qualifications if they win against Uruguay and Brazil (3%)
Brazil clinch playoff if they win against Paraguay (73%)
Uruguay clinch playoff if they win against Venezuela (72%)
Colombia clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Peru and Chile win against Bolivia (31%)
Paraguay clinch playoff if they win against Uruguay (30%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-7	Top-6	World Cup
14	31	Argentina	39.6	+23	100%	100%	100%
14	21	Brazil	29.2	+9	>99.99%	99.91%	99.99%
14	21	Uruguay	29.1	+11	>99.99%	99.82%	99.96%
14	26	Ecuador	28.7	+8	100%	99.93%	99.98%
14	20	Colombia	27.5	+7	99.97%	99.39%	99.88%
14	21	Paraguay	25.1	-0	99.98%	97.0%	98.9%
14	15	Venezuela	18.7	-8	68%	3.1%	42%
14	14	Bolivia	17.3	-20	28%	< 1%	15%
14	10	Peru	13.6	-15	2.1%	< 1%	1.3%
14	10	Chile	13.3	-16	2.2%	< 1%	1.3%

First six team qualify for the World Cup finals. The 7th team qualify for the intercontinental playoff.