Premier League

Liverpool has 99% won the league. Southampton, Leicester, and Ipswich are relegated in 98% of the simulations. It looks like Forest and City will join Liverpool and Arsenal in CL - together with either Chelsea or Newcastle.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Liverpool	89.4	+52	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Arsenal	77.5	+39	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.90%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
57	Forest	68.6	+16	< 1%	99.44%	97.4%	90%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	90%
51	Man City	66.7	+25	< 1%	98.0%	94%	83%	61%	< 1%	1.4%	15%	83%
52	Chelsea	64.5	+19	< 1%	94%	83%	58%	32%	< 1%	2.7%	38%	58%
50	Newcastle	64.4	+13	< 1%	91%	79%	53%	28%	< 1%	12%	34%	53%
48	Aston Villa	59.5	-0	< 1%	48%	22%	9%	3.2%	< 1%	18%	42%	11%
47	Brighton	58.2	+3	< 1%	35%	14%	4.8%	1.3%	< 1%	25%	23%	4.8%
45	Fulham	55.3	+3	< 1%	13%	4.3%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	9%	1.2%
44	Bournemouth	55.2	+11	< 1%	14%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	9%	< 1%
42	Crystal Palace	53.2	+2	< 1%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	23%	< 1%
41	Brentford	51.9	+3	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.6%	1.8%	< 1%
37	Man United	47.2	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%
34	Tottenham	45.9	+12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%
34	West Ham	44.7	-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Everton	44.1	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	Wolves	37.6	-21	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Ipswich	26.8	-41	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leicester	24.6	-48	99.62%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Southampton	15.4	-59	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	99.0%
Arsenal	1.0%			19%
Forest	< 1%	16%
Man City		47%
Chelsea				54%
Newcastle			100%
Aston Villa		18%		1.9%
Crystal Palace		20%
Man United				13%
Tottenham				19%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	55%
League cup winners	100%	88%	53%
Sixth team	100%	>99.99%	< 1%
Seventh team	98.1%	73%	< 1%
Eighth team	78%	9%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	24%	22%	54%	Arsenal
Ipswich	38%	24%	38%	Wolves
West Ham	42%	24%	33%	Bournemouth
Crystal Palace	51%	23%	26%	Brighton
Aston Villa	50%	23%	27%	Forest
Tottenham	75%	15%	10%	Southampton
Brentford	40%	24%	36%	Chelsea
Fulham	24%	22%	54%	Liverpool
Man United	31%	24%	45%	Man City
Leicester	25%	23%	52%	Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams in CL

23%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
21%	Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Newcastle
6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
6%	Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
4.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.4%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.0%	Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle
2.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
2.0%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Newcastle, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

98.3%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
1.3%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves