Relegation race done

With 12 points gap down to Ipswich and  with seven matches left, Wolves can still bottle this in theory, but in practice they are relegated in less than one out of 1000 simulations.

Coming weekend, the most interesting matches are regarding the European spot and especially the match between Bournemouth and Fulham. If Bournemouth lose  they chances are practically gone to reach Europe.

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected
Forest: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Bournemouth: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.5 less than expected
Leicester: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
West Ham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Liverpool	87.6	+50	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98.8%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
62	Arsenal	76.7	+38	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.91%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
57	Forest	67.6	+16	< 1%	99.12%	95.7%	84%	65%	< 1%	1.3%	14%	84%
52	Man City	66.1	+24	< 1%	97.4%	92%	79%	56%	< 1%	1.9%	19%	79%
53	Newcastle	65.6	+15	< 1%	95.3%	86%	66%	43%	< 1%	7%	27%	66%
53	Chelsea	64.2	+20	< 1%	93%	79%	52%	30%	< 1%	3.3%	43%	52%
51	Aston Villa	60.8	+0	< 1%	60%	30%	13%	5%	< 1%	18%	47%	15%
48	Fulham	57.3	+4	< 1%	23%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	16%	2.8%
47	Brighton	57.2	+3	< 1%	20%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	13%	1.9%
45	Bournemouth	55.0	+11	< 1%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	6%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	52.4	+1	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	21%	< 1%
42	Brentford	51.4	+3	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Man United	47.0	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%
37	Tottenham	46.5	+12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%
35	West Ham	44.2	-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	Everton	44.2	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	Wolves	40.2	-19	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Ipswich	25.4	-42	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leicester	23.6	-51	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Southampton	15.0	-59	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	98.8%
Arsenal	1.2%			19%
Forest	< 1%	16%
Man City		47%
Newcastle	< 1%		100%
Chelsea				54%
Aston Villa		18%		1.9%
Crystal Palace		20%
Man United				13%
Tottenham				19%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Bournemouth vs Fulham (11.7%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Fulham	30%	43%	63%
Bournemouth	31%	14%	6%
Brighton vs Leicester (4.4%)	Home Win (69%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (13%)
Brighton	45%	27%	19%
Fulham	39%	45%	48%
Bournemouth	19%	24%	26%
Aston Villa	79%	82%	84%
Southampton vs Aston Villa (3.6%)	Home Win (23%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Aston Villa	68%	75%	87%
Brighton	42%	40%	36%