CL: Wins for Arsenal and Inter

Advantage Arsenal and Inter after the first quarterfinals. Italy need that all their three teams advance to semifinals while two or three of the Spanish teams are knocked out.

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (73%) Aston Villa (27%)
		Arsenal (58%) Paris SG (31%)
Arsenal (92%)
				Arsenal (33%) Inter (25%) Paris SG (16%) Barcelona (15%)
Barcelona (73%) Dortmund (27%)
		Inter (52%) Barcelona (33%) Bayern (9%)
Inter (84%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	>99.99%	19.95	16.64	22.86
ESP	98.4%	17.77	15.21	20.79
ITA	1.6%	15.63	13.5	17
GER	< 1%	13.14	12.31	15.38

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 45 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.1%	11%	39%	45%	3.6%
Chance if	55%	91%	99.5%	>99.99%	100%

Number of finalists from ESP; 32 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	22%	43%	28%	7%
Chance if	93%	99.83%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 24 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	12%	38%	38%	12%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	9%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 13 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	52%	38%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	96.9%	99.90%	100%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 10 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	6%	35%	59%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 7 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	43%	42%	13%	1.4%
Chance if	< 1%	1.6%	4.0%	10%