CL: Barcelona and PSG favorites to go through.

England has clinched the extra CL slot. Spain is close (99.5%) and clinches it if three (of four) teams advance to semifinals.

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (91%)
		Arsenal (55%) Paris SG (38%)
Arsenal (92%)
				Arsenal (31%) Inter (23%) Barcelona (21%) Paris SG (19%)
Barcelona (99%)
		Inter (47%) Barcelona (45%)
Inter (84%)

 

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.79	16.64	22.57
ESP	99.52%	17.99	15.5	20.79
ITA	< 1%	15.6	13.5	17

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 14 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	4.3%	31%	59%	5.0%
Chance if	92%	99.5%	>99.99%	100%

Number of finalists from ESP; 12 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	41%	32%	9%
Chance if	97.3%	>99.99%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 10 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	13%	39%	37%	11%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 5 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	49%	40%	10%	< 1%
Chance if	99.0%	>99.99%	100%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 3 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	6%	35%	59%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 3 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	45%	41%	12%	1.2%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	4%