EL: Bilbao favorites

Bilbao, Tottenham, Man United and Frankfurt are favorites to win EL. Because Tottenham and Frankfurt play each other, their chances are obviously reduced.

In the conference Chelsea win almost six of ten simulations.

Spain has 99.96% clinched the extra CL spot. If all their teams advance the semifinals they will clinch it already next week.

Europa League

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Bodoe Glimt (63%) Lazio (37%)
		Frankfurt (32%) Tottenham (31%) Lazio (20%) Bodoe Glimt (18%)
Frankfurt (54%) Tottenham (46%)
				Bilbao (28%) Tottenham (16%) Man United (16%) Frankfurt (14%)
Bilbao (81%) Rangers (19%)
		Bilbao (48%) Man United (31%) Lyon (16%)
Man United (65%) Lyon (35%)

 Conference League

 

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Betis (93%)
		Fiorentina (59%) Betis (40%)
Fiorentina (98%)
				Chelsea (59%) Fiorentina (25%) Betis (15%)
Chelsea (100%)
		Chelsea (93%)
Rapid Wien (81%) Djurgarden (19%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.87	17.21	22.29
ESP	99.96%	18.08	15.93	20.64
ITA	< 1%	15.35	13.75	16.75

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 1 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.4%	22%	71%	6%
Chance if	98%	99.88%	>99.99%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	45%	32%	5%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Number of finalists from ESP; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	16%	40%	33%	10%
Chance if	99.7%	100%	100%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 1 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	11%	58%	31%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	47%	41%	11%	< 1%
Chance if	99.90%	100%	100%	100%