PL: Bournemouth take the chance to stay in the Europa race

Bournemouth beat Fulham with an early goal and stay in the race for an Europa spot. It looks like City, Newcastle and Forest will join Liverpool and Arsenal in CL (possibly followed by Spurs or Man U). Chelsea and Villa challenge, and Bournemouth, Fulham, and Brighton challenge in turn for EL spots.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
76	Liverpool	88.1	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99.80%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
63	Arsenal	75.4	+37	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
55	Man City	67.0	+26	< 1%	99.15%	95.9%	88%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	88%
56	Newcastle	66.7	+18	< 1%	98.6%	93%	81%	59%	< 1%	2.7%	17%	81%
57	Forest	65.8	+14	< 1%	98.1%	90%	72%	43%	< 1%	2.8%	25%	72%
54	Chelsea	62.8	+18	< 1%	89%	65%	37%	18%	< 1%	4.6%	57%	37%
54	Aston Villa	61.9	+2	< 1%	76%	44%	20%	9%	< 1%	15%	54%	21%
48	Fulham	56.4	+4	< 1%	15%	5.0%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	10%	1.1%
48	Bournemouth	56.2	+12	< 1%	13%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	9%	< 1%
48	Brighton	56.0	+1	< 1%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	7%	< 1%
43	Brentford	51.9	+5	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	51.7	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	20%	< 1%
38	Everton	46.2	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Man United	46.2	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%
37	Tottenham	45.0	+10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%
35	West Ham	43.8	-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	Wolves	41.9	-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Ipswich	26.0	-40	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Leicester	24.1	-49	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Southampton	14.0	-62	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	99.80%
Arsenal	< 1%			31%
Man City		47%
Newcastle			100%
Forest		16%
Chelsea				59%
Aston Villa		18%		< 1%
Crystal Palace		20%
Man United				16%
Tottenham				16%

Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Newcastle (11%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Aston Villa	33%	14%	8%
Newcastle	71%	83%	94%
Fulham vs Chelsea (7.7%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Chelsea	24%	33%	54%
Fulham	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
Forest	76%	73%	66%
Newcastle	83%	82%	77%
Tottenham vs Forest (5.3%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Forest	63%	73%	88%
Chelsea	40%	36%	31%
Aston Villa	23%	20%	17%
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace (5.1%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Newcastle	89%	76%	67%
Chelsea	34%	38%	41%
Aston Villa	19%	22%	24%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Fulham vs Chelsea (6.1%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Fulham	20%	7%	3.6%
Chelsea	89%	94%	97.7%
Aston Villa vs Newcastle (6.1%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Aston Villa	85%	71%	62%
Newcastle	95.2%	98.2%	99.7%
Bournemouth	8%	11%	13%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brentford vs Brighton (9%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	16%	25%	45%
Brentford	10%	2.9%	< 1%
Fulham vs Chelsea (7.8%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Fulham	49%	28%	18%
Chelsea	96.1%	98.4%	99.68%
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth (7.7%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Bournemouth	23%	34%	56%
Fulham	36%	34%	27%
Brighton	29%	27%	21%