CL: Arsenal vs Inter is the most likely final in simulations

Despite that PSG and Barca already are through to the semifinals, the most frequent final in the simulations is the one between Arsenal (53) and Inter (47%).

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Arsenal (53%) Paris SG (42%)
Arsenal (92%)
				Arsenal (30%) Inter (23%) Paris SG (22%) Barcelona (20%)
Barcelona (100%)
		Inter (47%) Barcelona (46%)
Inter (84%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.98	17.5	22.07
ESP	99.93%	17.93	16.14	20.36
ITA	< 1%	15.35	13.75	16.75

Number of finalists from ITA; 3 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	45%	32%	5%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 2 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.2%	22%	71%	6%
Chance if	97%	99.7%	>99.99%	100%

Number of finalists from ESP; 2 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	16%	40%	33%	10%
Chance if	99.4%	100%	100%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 1 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	11%	58%	30%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	48%	40%	11%	< 1%
Chance if	99.81%	100%	100%	100%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	52%	38%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%