Champions League - Final Four

The simulations have been run and below are the outcomes.

Italy still has a theoretical chance to get the extra CL slot. They probably need to win all three tournaments and more urgent both Bilbao and Betis probably need to be knocked out tonight - or at least one of them.

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Arsenal (58%) Paris SG (42%)
Arsenal (100%)
				Arsenal (32%) Inter (27%) Paris SG (21%) Barcelona (20%)
Barcelona (100%)
		Inter (55%) Barcelona (45%)
Inter (100%)

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	20.2	18	22.07
ESP	99.86%	17.7	16.14	19.07
ITA	< 1%	15.39	14.06	16.63

Number of finalists from ITA; 5 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	15%	43%	36%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%

Number of finalists from ESP; 4 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	17%	41%	33%	9%
Chance if	99.0%	100%	100%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 4 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	1.3%	23%	75%
Chance if	96%	99.5%	>99.99%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 2 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	1.5%	62%	36%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 2 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	49%	40%	10%	< 1%
Chance if	99.65%	100%	100%	100%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	50%	40%	10%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%