Monday, May 5, 2025

PL: The race for a place in Champions League

Five teams are fighting over three CL places. Man City will likely make it and probably only need another three points to be sure in their matches against Southampton, Bournemouth and Fulham. On average they take 6.0 points and make it in 97.5% of the simulations. Newcastle are playing Chelsea, Arsenal, and Everton and if they take five points they will likely make it but fewer points might suffice too. On average they take 4.4 points and make it in 77% of the simulations. The match against Chelsea on Sunday will be hugely important. Chelsea play Newcastle, Man United, and Forest. They probably need to take at least one point to have a chance and if they take five points they are almost surely making it. On average they take 4.3 points in the remaining three matches and make it in 68% of the simulations. They final match against Forest might very well become a decider. Forest are playing Leicester, West Ham and then Chelsea at home in the final match. They need to take four points to have a chance and three wins guarantee they a CL place. Lastly, Aston Villa are playing Bournemouth, Spurs, and Man United. They take 4.4 on average in the simulation and likely need to take at least 5 points to have a chance, but will need help from other results. The other four teams have it in their own hands.



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
82Liverpool87.9+49< 1%100%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%100%
67Arsenal72.5+35< 1%100%>99.99%99.91%99.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.92%
64Man City70.0+27< 1%100%99.51%97.5%90%< 1%< 1%2.4%97.5%
63Newcastle67.4+21< 1%100%94%77%47%< 1%1.8%22%77%
63Chelsea67.3+21< 1%100%90%68%42%< 1%1.0%31%68%
61Forest66.1+14< 1%99.64%79%45%19%< 1%6%48%45%
60Aston Villa64.4+6< 1%96.9%37%13%3.7%< 1%19%67%13%
53Bournemouth57.5+13< 1%2.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%35%1.5%< 1%
52Brentford56.7+10< 1%1.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%23%< 1%< 1%
52Brighton55.1-1< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%6%< 1%< 1%
51Fulham55.0+3< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%8%< 1%< 1%
46Crystal Palace49.5-5< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%29%< 1%
41Wolves45.0-11< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Man United43.4-9< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%53%
39Everton43.0-7< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
38Tottenham42.2+6< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%43%
37West Ham40.8-20< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
22Ipswich25.4-42100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Leicester23.7-50100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
11Southampton12.5-62100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Titles
TeamLeagueFA CupLeague CupEurope


Liverpool100%


Arsenal


13%
Man City
71%

Newcastle

100%
Chelsea


63%
Crystal Palace
29%

Man United


53%
Tottenham


43%
Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Chelsea (32.2%)Home Win (49%)Draw (23%)Away Win (28%)
Newcastle95.5%73%46%
Chelsea50%74%94%
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa (10.7%)Home Win (42%)Draw (24%)Away Win (34%)
Aston Villa2.7%8%30%
Newcastle80%78%71%
Forest vs Leicester (10.4%)Home Win (71%)Draw (17%)Away Win (12%)
Forest55%25%17%
Chelsea64%76%80%
Newcastle73%83%86%
Aston Villa11%17%19%



Man CityNewcastleChelseaMan UnitedForestTottenhamAston Villa
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
7220%< 1%-5.0%5.0%100%5%5%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7142%22%100%5.0%< 1%-5%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7065%23%100%15%10%100%16%10%100%< 1%< 1%-10%10%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6972%7%>99.99%38%23%99.84%34%18%99.7%< 1%< 1%-10%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-6%6%91%
6887%15%98.9%44%6%98.1%40%6%99.1%< 1%< 1%-26%15%94%< 1%< 1%-6%< 1%-
6795%8%97.1%66%22%89%62%22%84%< 1%< 1%-48%22%67%< 1%< 1%-18%12%37%
6697.2%2.3%77%84%18%55%81%19%37%< 1%< 1%-55%7%36%< 1%< 1%-37%19%14%
6599.36%2.1%47%89%5%36%87%6%31%< 1%< 1%-75%20%13%< 1%< 1%-43%7%4.1%
64100%< 1%26%96.7%7%15%95.6%9%6%< 1%< 1%-90%15%2.7%< 1%< 1%-65%21%< 1%
63100%< 1%-100%3.3%4%100%4.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%-94%3.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%-82%18%< 1%
62100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-98.3%4.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%-88%6%< 1%
61100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%1.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%-96.2%8%< 1%
60100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%3.8%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa (7%)Home Win (42%)Draw (24%)Away Win (34%)
Aston Villa72%80%90%
Bournemouth3.6%< 1%< 1%
Forest96.1%95%90%
Newcastle99.3%98.3%96.8%
Brentford1.3%< 1%< 1%



ChelseaNewcastleForestAston VillaMan UnitedTottenhamCrystal PalaceBournemouth
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
7016%10%100%15%10%100%10%10%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6934%18%100%38%23%100%10%< 1%-6%6%99.97%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6840%6%100%44%6%100%26%15%99.96%6%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6762%22%99.91%66%22%99.87%48%22%99.5%18%12%96.7%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6681%19%99.0%84%18%98.2%55%7%97.1%37%19%90%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6587%6%97.8%89%5%95.5%75%20%92%43%7%84%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6495.6%9%95.8%96.7%7%91%90%15%88%65%21%76%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
63100%4.4%93%100%3.3%84%94%3.8%82%82%18%73%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
62100%< 1%-100%< 1%-98.3%4.6%74%88%6%69%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-4.6%4.6%24%
61100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%1.7%66%96.2%8%59%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-4.6%< 1%-
60100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%3.8%44%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-14%9%4.3%
59100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-38%24%< 1%
58100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-43%5%< 1%
57100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-66%23%< 1%
56100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-87%21%< 1%
55100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-1.9%1.9%29%91%4.3%< 1%
54100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-1.9%< 1%-97.3%6%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa (15.2%)Home Win (42%)Draw (24%)Away Win (34%)
Bournemouth55%30%19%
Brentford13%28%34%
Fulham3.9%8%13%
Aston Villa97.6%99.7%100%
Brighton2.9%7%9%
Ipswich vs Brentford (9.2%)Home Win (27%)Draw (23%)Away Win (50%)
Brentford9%15%36%
Bournemouth47%42%29%
Brighton8%7%3.9%



Aston VillaMan UnitedTottenhamBournemouthCrystal PalaceBrentfordFulhamBrighton
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
6465%21%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6382%18%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6288%6%98.7%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-4.6%4.6%81%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6196.2%8%94%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-4.6%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-8%8%74%< 1%< 1%-2.0%2.0%68%
60100%3.8%86%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-14%9%67%< 1%< 1%-8%< 1%-4.4%4.4%63%2.0%< 1%-
59100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-38%24%60%< 1%< 1%-22%14%49%4.4%< 1%-7%5%34%
58100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-43%5%49%< 1%< 1%-42%20%37%13%9%32%18%11%20%
57100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-66%23%27%< 1%< 1%-49%7%21%30%17%11%22%4.4%8%
56100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-87%21%16%< 1%< 1%-70%20%7%36%6%3.2%41%19%1.5%
55100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-91%4.3%6%1.9%1.9%29%85%15%2.2%58%21%< 1%62%21%< 1%
54100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-97.3%6%< 1%1.9%< 1%-90%5%< 1%77%20%< 1%70%8%< 1%
53100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%2.7%< 1%7%4.9%29%96.9%7%< 1%84%6%< 1%88%17%< 1%
52100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-22%15%29%100%3.1%< 1%94%11%< 1%100%12%< 1%
51100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-26%3.8%29%100%< 1%-100%6%< 1%100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points


Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Ipswich27%23%50%Brentford
Wolves46%24%30%Brighton
Southampton13%17%70%Man City
Fulham52%23%25%Everton
Bournemouth42%24%34%Aston Villa
Newcastle49%23%28%Chelsea
Man United58%21%21%West Ham
Forest71%17%12%Leicester
Tottenham47%24%29%Crystal Palace
Liverpool51%23%26%Arsenal


Most likely combo of teams in CL
23%Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle
19%Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
14%Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle
11%Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
9%Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.9%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.5%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle
2.4%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.0%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham

 
 

Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)