PL: City failed to secure CL spot.

City fail to clinch a CL slot and now have 92% chance to do so. 3 points will likely suffice and with 4 points they are most surely playing CL next year. Aston Villa took the chance to join the CL race and now have a 31% chance. They have very good chances if they also beat Spurs and Man United, but 3-4 points might also suffice with some help from other matches. 

After their loss against Everton, Fulham need to win their two remaining matches to a have a chance on Conference League. They play a Europe chasing Brentford away next weekend and then Man City in the last match. They win both matches in less thsn 10% of simulations.

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

82

Liverpool

87.9

+49

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Arsenal

72.5

+35

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

99.84%

99.0%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.84%

65

Man City

68.7

+26

< 1%

100%

98.3%

92%

78%

< 1%

< 1%

8%

92%

63

Newcastle

67.4

+21

< 1%

100%

89%

71%

48%

< 1%

3.2%

25%

71%

63

Chelsea

67.3

+21

< 1%

100%

83%

64%

43%

< 1%

1.8%

34%

64%

63

Aston Villa

66.2

+8

< 1%

100%

64%

31%

13%

< 1%

10%

58%

31%

61

Forest

66.1

+14

< 1%

99.69%

65%

41%

20%

< 1%

10%

48%

41%

55

Brentford

58.0

+10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45%

< 1%

< 1%

55

Brighton

57.0

+2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16%

< 1%

< 1%

53

Bournemouth

56.0

+12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

12%

< 1%

< 1%

51

Fulham

53.2

+0

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1.7%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Crystal Palace

49.5

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29%

< 1%

42

Everton

45.1

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

41

Wolves

43.4

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Man United

43.4

-9

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

52%

38

Tottenham

42.2

+6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48%

37

West Ham

40.8

-20

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22

Ipswich

24.4

-43

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Leicester

23.7

-50

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

12

Southampton

13.0

-60

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	100%
Man City		71%
Newcastle			100%
Chelsea				64%
Crystal Palace		29%
Man United				52%
Tottenham				48%

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Chelsea (35%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Newcastle	93%	65%	39%
Chelsea	45%	70%	92%
Aston Villa vs Tottenham (17%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Aston Villa	47%	15%	5%
Newcastle	67%	76%	80%
Forest	37%	47%	48%
Man City	90%	94%	96.0%
West Ham vs Forest (14%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Forest	24%	35%	66%
Aston Villa	37%	33%	24%
Newcastle	76%	73%	65%
Chelsea	69%	66%	57%
Chelsea vs Man United (10.8%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Chelsea	77%	55%	38%
Aston Villa	27%	36%	40%
Forest	38%	43%	50%
Forest vs Leicester (10.1%)	Home Win (71%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (12%)
Forest	51%	21%	13%
Aston Villa	28%	38%	41%
Chelsea	61%	70%	73%
Newcastle	69%	76%	78%
Arsenal vs Newcastle (7.3%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Newcastle	64%	78%	94%
Aston Villa	34%	30%	24%
Forest	44%	39%	34%
Arsenal	100%	99.94%	99.1%

	Man City			Newcastle			Chelsea			Man United			Tottenham			Forest			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
72	< 1%	< 1%	-	5.0%	5.0%	100%	5%	5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	29%	29%	100%	5.0%	< 1%	-	5%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	29%	< 1%	-	15%	10%	100%	16%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	53%	24%	>99.99%	38%	23%	99.87%	34%	18%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	< 1%	-	19%	19%	93%
68	81%	28%	97.2%	44%	6%	95.1%	40%	6%	97.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	26%	15%	88%	19%	< 1%	-
67	85%	4.5%	94%	66%	22%	83%	62%	22%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	48%	22%	63%	40%	21%	42%
66	95.0%	10%	65%	84%	18%	44%	81%	19%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	55%	7%	29%	71%	32%	16%
65	100%	5.0%	28%	89%	5.0%	18%	87%	6%	16%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	75%	20%	6%	76%	5%	3.9%
64	100%	< 1%	-	96.7%	7%	6%	95.6%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	90%	15%	1.1%	91%	14%	< 1%
63	100%	< 1%	-	100%	3.3%	< 1%	100%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	94%	3.8%	< 1%	100%	9%	< 1%
62	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	98.3%	4.6%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
61	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	1.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Tottenham (5.1%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Aston Villa	95.4%	85%	80%
Forest	87%	93%	94%
Newcastle	95.8%	97.5%	98.8%

	Chelsea			Newcastle			Aston Villa			Forest			Man United			Tottenham			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
72	5%	5%	100%	5.0%	5.0%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	5%	< 1%	-	5.0%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	16%	10%	100%	15%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	34%	18%	100%	38%	23%	100%	19%	19%	99.98%	10%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	40%	6%	100%	44%	6%	100%	19%	< 1%	-	26%	15%	99.86%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	62%	22%	99.8%	66%	22%	99.7%	40%	21%	97.1%	48%	22%	98.6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	81%	19%	97.7%	84%	18%	96.2%	71%	32%	91%	55%	7%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	87%	6%	95.9%	89%	5.0%	91%	76%	5%	84%	75%	20%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	95.6%	9%	93%	96.7%	7%	84%	91%	14%	76%	90%	15%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	100%	4.4%	91%	100%	3.3%	77%	100%	9%	73%	94%	3.8%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	98.3%	4.6%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	1.7%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brentford vs Fulham (23.2%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Brentford	63%	32%	21%
Brighton	6%	23%	27%
Bournemouth	5%	20%	20%
Fulham	< 1%	< 1%	6%
Brighton vs Liverpool (11.8%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Brighton	37%	15%	6%
Brentford	32%	44%	51%
Bournemouth	4.9%	14%	15%
Fulham	< 1%	2.0%	2.3%

	Man United			Tottenham			Brentford			Crystal Palace			Brighton			Bournemouth			Fulham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	17%	17%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	6%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	17%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	37%	20%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	-	18%	12%	42%	11%	11%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	67%	30%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	-	44%	26%	22%	11%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	72%	6%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	-	49%	5%	13%	27%	16%	14%	8%	8%	20%
56	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	89%	16%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	73%	24%	1.5%	75%	48%	8%	8%	< 1%	-
55	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	11%	2.9%	1.9%	1.9%	29%	100%	27%	< 1%	79%	3.2%	1.6%	22%	14%	< 1%
54	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	1.9%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	92%	13%	< 1%	50%	28%	< 1%
53	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	7%	4.9%	29%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	8%	< 1%	55%	6%	< 1%
52	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	22%	15%	29%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	78%	22%	< 1%
51	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	26%	3.8%	29%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	22%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points