Tuesday, May 20, 2025

PL: Who will reach Champions League?

Man City have 97.8%. Need 1 point against Fulham to secure CL play. If the
lose they need that one of Newcastle, Chelsea or Aston Villa fail to
win (93%).

Newcastle have 84%. Secure CL spot if they beat Everton. If they draw, they
need Man United to take a point (or win) against Aston Villa or that
Chelsea draw against Forest. If Newcastle lose, they need that Man
United beat Aston Villa.

Chelsea have 52%. Secure CL if they beat Forest. If they draw, they need
that Newcastle lose against Everton or that Aston Villa fail to win
against Man United.

Forest have 33%. They need to beat Chelsea and that Aston Villa or
Newcastle fail to win.

Aston Villa have 33%. If they beat Man United, they need that either
Chelsea or Newcastle fail to win. If they draw, they need that Forest
and Newcastle fail to win.


Brighton get a slot in Conference League if they following happens:
- They take a point or Brentford fail to win
- Forest beat Chelsea
- Aston Villa take (at least) a point against Man United
- Chelsea win the Conference League final

Brentford have the same condition except that they need to win against
Wolves plus that Brighton lose against Tottenham.




Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
83Liverpool85.3+47< 1%100%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%100%
71Arsenal73.4+36< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
68Man City69.6+26< 1%100%100%97.8%88%< 1%< 1%2.2%97.8%
66Newcastle68.0+23< 1%100%99.94%84%64%< 1%< 1%16%84%
66Chelsea67.3+20< 1%100%77%52%24%< 1%9%39%52%
66Aston Villa67.2+9< 1%100%72%33%14%< 1%28%39%33%
65Forest66.5+13< 1%100%51%33%11%< 1%49%19%33%
58Brighton59.0+3< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%12%< 1%< 1%
55Brentford56.2+9< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.5%< 1%< 1%
53Bournemouth55.3+12< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
54Fulham55.2+2< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
52Crystal Palace52.5-2< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%
45Everton45.8-4< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
41Wolves42.5-15< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40West Ham41.5-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Man United40.5-12< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%52%
38Tottenham39.7+3< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%48%
25Leicester25.5-47100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
22Ipswich23.3-44100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
12Southampton12.5-61100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

 

Important matches for CL race
Forest vs Chelsea (146%)Home Win (41%)Draw (24%)Away Win (35%)
Chelsea< 1%73%100%
Forest80%< 1%< 1%
Man United vs Aston Villa (81.2%)Home Win (43%)Draw (24%)Away Win (33%)
Aston Villa< 1%19%86%
Newcastle99.90%81%66%
Forest41%41%16%
Newcastle vs Everton (35.8%)Home Win (61%)Draw (20%)Away Win (19%)
Newcastle100%75%43%
Aston Villa25%33%57%
Man City96.3%100%100%



Man CityNewcastleChelseaMan UnitedTottenhamForestAston Villa
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
6968%24%100%61%61%100%35%35%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-33%33%86%
68100%32%93%61%< 1%-35%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-41%41%80%33%< 1%-
67100%< 1%-81%20%75%59%24%73%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-41%< 1%-57%24%19%
66100%< 1%-100%19%43%100%41%< 1%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-65%24%< 1%100%43%< 1%
65100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%35%< 1%100%< 1%-
64100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Forest vs Chelsea (109.3%)Home Win (41%)Draw (24%)Away Win (35%)
Forest100%43%< 1%
Aston Villa57%57%100%
Chelsea79%100%100%
Man United vs Aston Villa (57%)Home Win (43%)Draw (24%)Away Win (33%)
Aston Villa35%100%100%
Chelsea100%85%85%
Forest65%41%41%



ChelseaAston VillaMan UnitedForestTottenham
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
6935%35%100%33%33%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6835%< 1%-33%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-41%41%100%< 1%< 1%-
6759%24%100%57%24%100%< 1%< 1%-41%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
66100%41%79%100%43%35%< 1%< 1%-65%24%43%< 1%< 1%-
65100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%35%< 1%< 1%< 1%-
64100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Forest vs Chelsea (21%)Home Win (41%)Draw (24%)Away Win (35%)
Brighton30%< 1%< 1%
Brentford6%< 1%< 1%
Man United vs Aston Villa (13%)Home Win (43%)Draw (24%)Away Win (33%)
Brighton< 1%22%22%
Brentford< 1%4.3%4.3%



Man UnitedTottenhamBrightonBrentford
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
61< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-27%27%15%< 1%< 1%-
60< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-27%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
59< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-50%23%15%< 1%< 1%-
58< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%50%10%33%33%7%
57< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-33%< 1%-
56< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-57%24%< 1%
55< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%43%< 1%
54< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
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