World Cup: Asian qualifiers

Uzbekistan, South Korea, and Jordan joined Japan and Iran as qualified. Australia will play Saudi Arabia in decider for the last spot, where Saudi Arabia must beat Australia with four goals or more. There is another decided between Oman and Palestine, where Palestine need win to clinch a spot in in the playoff together with UAE, Qatar, Iraq, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia (or Australia).

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
9	20	Iran	22.7	+11	100%	100%	100%
9	18	Uzbekistan	20.2	+5	100%	100%	100%
9	14	United Arab Emirates	15.9	+8	100%	< 1%	44%
9	13	Qatar	13.6	-5	100%	< 1%	43%
9	7	Kyrgyzstan	7.9	-7
9	3	North Korea	3.2	-12

Group B
Oman clinch round 4 if they draw (or win) against Palestine (62%)
Palestine clinch round 4 if they win against Oman (38%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
9	19	South Korea	21.7	+12	100%	100%	100%
9	16	Jordan	17.8	+10	100%	100%	100%
9	12	Iraq	13	-2	100%	< 1%	54%
9	10	Oman	11.4	-5	62%	< 1%	24%
9	9	Palestine	10.4	-3	38%	< 1%	9%
9	5	Kuwait	5.2	-12

Group C
Australia clinch qualifications if they avoid losing with 5 goals against Saudi Arabia (99.72%)

Saudi Arabia clinch qualifications if they win with 5 goals against Australia (0.28%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
9	20	Japan	22.8	+24	100%	100%	100%
9	16	Australia	17.7	+8	100%	99.72%	99.92%
9	13	Saudi Arabia	14.1	-0	100%	< 1%	45%
9	12	Indonesia	12.1	-8	100%	< 1%	13%
9	6	Bahrain	7.4	-10
9	6	China	7.4	-14

Top-2 advance to the World Cup.
3rd and 4th teams advance to Round 4.
The six teams in Round 4 play two groups of three teams.
The winners qualify for the world cup.
Runners-up play playoff in which the winners advance.
to the intercontinental playoff.