World: South America

Argentina have qualified and it looks like they will be joined by Brazil, Ecuador, Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia. Below are the some conditions by which they can secure qualification next week.

Brazil clinch qualifications if they win against Paraguay and Uruguay draw (or win) against Venezuela (64%)
Ecuador clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Peru and Uruguay draw (or win) against Venezuela (63%)
Paraguay clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Brazil and Uruguay win against Venezuela (20%)
Uruguay clinch qualifications if they win against Venezuela and Paraguay draw (or win) against Brazil (20%)
Uruguay clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Venezuela (88%)
Colombia clinch playoff if Chile draw (or win) against Bolivia (59%)
Venezuela clinch playoff if they win against Uruguay and Chile draw (or win) against Bolivia (7%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-7	Top-6	World Cup
15	34	Argentina	40.4	+23	100%	100%	100%
15	22	Brazil	28.9	+9	100%	99.96%	>99.99%
15	27	Ecuador	28.2	+8	100%	99.97%	>99.99%
15	21	Uruguay	27.4	+9	>99.99%	99.38%	99.88%
15	24	Paraguay	27	+2	100%	99.67%	99.89%
15	21	Colombia	26.1	+6	99.96%	98.5%	99.73%
15	18	Venezuela	19.7	-7	92%	2.4%	57%
15	14	Bolivia	16.5	-21	7%	< 1%	3.5%
15	11	Peru	14.1	-13	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
15	10	Chile	12.7	-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

First six team qualify for the World Cup finals. The 7th team qualify for the intercontinental playoff.