World Cup: Will Italy miss a third consecutive world cup?

Bosnia off with a good start winning their first three matches, challenging group H favorite Austria (92%) who won their first match. In group F, Norway thrashed Italy and are now favorites (72%) to win that group. Will Italy miss a third consecutive world cup? England off with a perfect start in in group K with three wins. In group L, Czechia are off with a good start with three wins challenging group favorites Croatia (71%) who won their first match.

Group G

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
1	3	Netherlands	21.1	+20	99.83%	99.82%	91%	95.3%
2	6	Poland	15.9	+5	87%	87%	9%	26%
3	4	Finland	10.9	-2	14%	14%	< 1%	1.4%
3	2	Lithuania	5	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	1	Malta	3.2	-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
1	3	Austria	20.8	+22	98.8%	98.8%	92%	95%
3	9	Bosnia and Herzegovina	15.1	+2	53%	53%	5%	8%
3	3	Romania	14	+12	>99.99%	48%	2.3%	25%
2	3	Cyprus	7.6	-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	San Marino	0.7	-27	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Norway	19.8	+18	100%	99.11%	72%	82%
1	0	Italy	17.6	+13	94%	93%	27%	61%
3	6	Israel	11.8	-1	8%	7%	< 1%	1.7%
3	3	Estonia	5.9	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Moldova	3	-18	80%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%

Group J

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
1	1	Belgium	17.9	+17	93%	92%	68%	77%
3	7	Wales	16.1	+10	100%	78%	28%	46%
3	5	North Macedonia	13.1	+6	99.90%	27%	4.3%	17%
2	3	Kazakhstan	8.8	-4	2.6%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Liechtenstein	0.4	-29

Group K

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	England	21	+18	100%	99.25%	87%	95%
1	1	Serbia	15.9	+12	84%	84%	12%	37%
3	4	Albania	12.6	+4	16%	16%	< 1%	3.1%
2	3	Latvia	6.8	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Andorra	1.1	-22	< 1%	< 1%

Group L

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
1	3	Croatia	19.9	+23	97.9%	97.8%	71%	83%
3	9	Czechia	18.1	+13	100%	95.4%	28%	48%
3	6	Montenegro	12.1	-1	7%	7%	< 1%	1.2%
2	0	Faroe Islands	5.8	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Gibraltar	2	-27

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a play for the remaining four slots

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	< 1%	99.73%	96.2%	99.14%
A	Germany	1.2%	98.8%	89%	95%
F	Portugal	1.8%	98.2%	83%	93%
D	France	< 1%	99.36%	88%	95.9%
K	England	< 1%	99.25%	87%	95%
I	Norway	< 1%	99.11%	72%	82%
J	Wales	22%	78%	28%	46%
L	Czechia	4.6%	95.4%	28%	48%
H	Romania	52%	48%	2.3%	25%
B	Sweden	41%	59%	26%	46%
J	North Macedonia	73%	27%	4.3%	17%
A	Northern Ireland	76%	23%	1.6%	11%
I	Moldova	80%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%
H	San Marino	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	< 1%	93%	27%	61%
G	Netherlands	< 1%	99.82%	91%	95.3%
C	Denmark	1.5%	79%	47%	61%
L	Croatia	< 1%	97.8%	71%	83%
C	Scotland	3.3%	50%	20%	29%
K	Serbia	< 1%	84%	12%	37%
F	Hungary	< 1%	79%	15%	34%
J	Belgium	< 1%	92%	68%	77%
G	Poland	< 1%	87%	9%	26%
I	Israel	< 1%	7%	< 1%	1.7%