World Cup: European qualifiers

 

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Germany	14.7	+12	100%	98.8%	89%	95%
0	0	Slovakia	9.2	+1	72%	72%	9%	23%
0	0	Northern Ireland	6.1	-4	98.4%	23%	1.6%	11%
0	0	Luxembourg	3.9	-9	7%	7%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Switzerland	10.8	+4	78%	78%	49%	59%
0	0	Sweden	9.2	+1	99.98%	59%	26%	46%
0	0	Slovenia	8.7	+1	53%	53%	22%	30%
0	0	Kosovo	4.7	-6	11%	11%	2.7%	3.5%

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Denmark	11.4	+5	81%	79%	47%	61%
0	0	Greece	10.4	+4	68%	68%	33%	45%
0	0	Scotland	9.1	+2	54%	50%	20%	29%
0	0	Belarus	2.9	-11	2.1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	France	15.1	+14	100%	99.36%	88%	95.8%
0	0	Ukraine	10.4	+4	85%	85%	11%	36%
0	0	Iceland	5.9	-5	14%	14%	< 1%	2.2%
0	0	Azerbaijan	2.8	-13	1.8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Spain	15.9	+16	100%	99.73%	96.2%	99.16%
0	0	Turkey	8.5	-0	63%	63%	2.8%	21%
0	0	Georgia	6.8	-4	33%	33%	< 1%	8%
0	0	Bulgaria	3	-12	4.0%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Portugal	14.4	+12	100%	98.2%	83%	93%
0	0	Hungary	10.2	+3	79%	79%	15%	34%
0	0	Ireland	6.6	-4	21%	21%	2.0%	4.6%
0	0	Armenia	2.9	-12	2.2%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
1	3	Netherlands	21.1	+20	99.66%	99.64%	95.6%	97.6%
3	6	Poland	14.3	+4	70%	70%	3.9%	18%
4	7	Finland	12.7	-0	30%	30%	< 1%	3.1%
3	2	Lithuania	5	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	1	Malta	3.2	-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	Austria	20.9	+21	98.8%	98.8%	93%	95.1%
3	9	Bosnia and Herzegovina	15.1	+2	50%	50%	5%	8%
4	6	Romania	14.3	+11	>99.99%	51%	2.4%	26%
3	3	Cyprus	7.4	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	San Marino	0.7	-26	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	12	Norway	20.4	+17	100%	99.70%	79%	86%
2	3	Italy	17.8	+11	94%	94%	21%	58%
3	6	Israel	11.8	-1	7%	7%	< 1%	1.4%
4	3	Estonia	5.4	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Moldova	2.9	-16	81%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%

Group J

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	4	Belgium	18.8	+17	95.8%	95.4%	80%	86%
4	7	Wales	15.3	+10	100%	66%	14%	36%
4	8	North Macedonia	14.4	+7	99.95%	38%	6%	19%
3	3	Kazakhstan	7.7	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Liechtenstein	0.4	-29

Group K

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	England	21	+18	100%	99.74%	88%	95.1%
2	4	Serbia	16	+11	90%	90%	12%	39%
4	5	Albania	11.4	+3	10%	10%	< 1%	1.7%
3	4	Latvia	7.1	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Andorra	1	-20	< 1%	< 1%

Group L

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	Croatia	20.8	+26	99.15%	99.10%	86%	92%
4	9	Czechia	17.4	+10	100%	94%	13%	37%
3	6	Montenegro	12.1	-1	7%	7%	< 1%	1.1%
3	3	Faroe Islands	6.4	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Gibraltar	1.5	-26

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a play for the remaining four slots

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	99.73%	96.2%	99.16%
A	Germany	100%	1.2%	98.8%	89%	95%
F	Portugal	100%	1.8%	98.2%	83%	93%
D	France	100%	< 1%	99.36%	88%	95.8%
K	England	100%	< 1%	99.74%	88%	95.1%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	99.70%	79%	86%
J	Wales	100%	34%	66%	14%	36%
L	Czechia	100%	6%	94%	13%	37%
H	Romania	>99.99%	49%	51%	2.4%	26%
B	Sweden	99.98%	41%	59%	26%	46%
J	North Macedonia	99.95%	62%	38%	6%	19%
A	Northern Ireland	98.4%	76%	23%	1.6%	11%
I	Moldova	81%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%
H	San Marino	39%	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	94%	< 1%	94%	21%	58%
G	Netherlands	99.66%	< 1%	99.64%	95.6%	97.6%
C	Denmark	81%	1.4%	79%	47%	61%
L	Croatia	99.15%	< 1%	99.10%	86%	92%
C	Scotland	54%	3.3%	50%	20%	29%
K	Serbia	90%	< 1%	90%	12%	39%
F	Hungary	79%	< 1%	79%	15%	34%
J	Belgium	95.8%	< 1%	95.4%	80%	86%
G	Poland	70%	< 1%	70%	3.9%	18%
I	Israel	7%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	1.4%