PL: Surprises so far

 Liverpool, Sunderland, and Tottenham have all started with better results than expected. On the other end, Wolves, Aston Villa, and West Ham have all started worse than expected, as detailed below.

Hot Teams
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 more than expected
Sunderland: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Tottenham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Leeds: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected

Cold Teams
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 5.5 less than expected
Aston Villa: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
West Ham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Brentford: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
15	Liverpool	81.0	+40	< 1%	99.93%	99.84%	99.63%	99.00%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	99.62%
10	Arsenal	74.8	+40	< 1%	99.26%	98.6%	97.2%	94%	25%	< 1%	1.9%	97.3%
7	Man City	66.2	+26	< 1%	90%	85%	77%	65%	3.9%	4.1%	12%	78%
8	Chelsea	64.3	+22	< 1%	85%	79%	69%	54%	2.4%	6%	15%	68%
9	Crystal Palace	58.7	+10	< 1%	60%	49%	37%	23%	< 1%	6%	39%	35%
6	Newcastle	57.1	+9	< 1%	51%	41%	29%	17%	< 1%	12%	20%	28%
10	Bournemouth	56.1	+2	< 1%	44%	34%	23%	13%	< 1%	9%	19%	22%
10	Tottenham	53.6	+3	1.6%	32%	23%	15%	8%	< 1%	10%	15%	14%
7	Everton	52.0	-0	2.8%	24%	17%	10%	5%	< 1%	8%	13%	10%
7	Man United	51.8	-4	3.2%	23%	16%	10%	4.7%	< 1%	7%	12%	9%
3	Aston Villa	51.7	+1	3.1%	24%	16%	10%	4.8%	< 1%	5%	11%	28%
5	Brighton	51.5	-1	3.4%	22%	15%	9%	4.5%	< 1%	10%	11%	9%
8	Fulham	49.4	-6	6%	14%	9%	5%	2.4%	< 1%	7%	8%	4.9%
5	Forest	48.9	-7	7%	13%	8%	4.7%	2.2%	< 1%	4.1%	7%	15%
4	Brentford	47.7	-8	9%	10%	6%	3.4%	1.5%	< 1%	7%	8%	3.2%
7	Leeds	44.3	-17	19%	3.9%	2.2%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	6%	< 1%
3	West Ham	40.2	-23	40%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Burnley	39.3	-21	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%
0	Wolves	35.4	-27	67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.7%	< 1%
8	Sunderland	30.3	-41	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%