CL: Matchday 1

Below are the stats in the league phase. In the vast majority of simulations 8-10 points are required to reach the knockout stage. 

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	3	Arsenal	18	17-6	99.77%	97.5%	84%	96.6%	70%	46%	29%	16%
2	3	Liverpool	17	18-7	99.38%	95.4%	77%	95.2%	71%	48%	31%	18%
3	3	Barcelona	16	23-9	98.8%	93%	70%	91%	59%	34%	18%	9%
4	3	Real Madrid	16	14-7	98.5%	91%	64%	89%	57%	32%	17%	8%
5	3	Man City	16	14-9	97.6%	88%	60%	87%	55%	30%	16%	8%
6	3	Inter	16	13-8	98.3%	89%	60%	87%	52%	28%	13%	6%
7	3	Paris SG	15	20-11	97.0%	86%	56%	88%	60%	37%	22%	12%
8	3	Bayern	15	14-5	97.4%	87%	56%	85%	52%	28%	14%	7%
9	0	Chelsea	14	11-12	93%	74%	36%	75%	42%	22%	10%	4.7%
10	3	Tottenham	13	13-11	89%	65%	29%	58%	22%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
11	0	Napoli	12	9-7	81%	53%	19%	55%	24%	10%	3.5%	1.3%
12	1	Juventus	12	10-12	79%	50%	17%	50%	19%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
13	1	Dortmund	11	20-15	78%	49%	17%	49%	19%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
14	3	Brugge	11	18-13	80%	48%	15%	43%	13%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
15	3	Sporting	11	13-10	77%	46%	15%	45%	16%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
16	3	Frankfurt	11	8-6	75%	43%	14%	40%	13%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
17	0	Villarreal	11	10-9	73%	42%	13%	42%	15%	4.8%	1.4%	< 1%
18	0	Atletico	11	14-14	73%	42%	12%	45%	18%	7%	2.5%	< 1%
19	0	Atalanta	11	13-13	73%	44%	14%	46%	19%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
20	1	Leverkusen	11	10-10	71%	41%	12%	44%	18%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
21	3	St Gillis	11	11-13	71%	39%	11%	34%	9%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	0	Newcastle	10	12-9	68%	37%	10%	44%	20%	8%	3.2%	1.3%
23	0	Monaco	10	10-13	60%	29%	7%	29%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
24	0	Bilbao	10	11-15	58%	27%	6%	32%	11%	3.9%	1.2%	< 1%
25	1	FC Kobenhavn	9	15-17	52%	20%	3.7%	17%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	0	Benfica	9	9-11	50%	22%	4.7%	28%	11%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%
27	1	Olympiakos	9	10-18	45%	16%	2.7%	16%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Marseille	8	15-14	45%	18%	3.5%	20%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
29	0	Galatasaray	8	12-18	38%	13%	2.1%	14%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	0	PSV	8	9-15	36%	12%	2.1%	17%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Ajax	8	6-13	34%	11%	1.6%	10%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	1	Bodoe Glimt	8	8-16	33%	11%	1.7%	10%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Karabakh Agdam	8	11-23	30%	8%	< 1%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	1	Slavia Praha	7	15-20	28%	8%	1.2%	9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	1	Paphos	7	4-12	22%	5%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Kairat	3	4-31	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	19-16	13	13-8	17	15-7
5%	10	14-15	13	12-10	16	23-14
25%	10	11-17	12	15-11	16	12-8
50%	9	10-11	12	9-8	15	18-12
75%	9	12-17	11	18-14	15	12-12
95%	8	11-14	11	14-15	14	15-12
99%	8	8-14	10	16-11	13	17-11