Champions League

Below shows stats from a million simulations and the probabilities that teams reach various stages. The listed points and goal differences are the median outcome, in other words, the teams have a better outcome in half if the simulations and worse outcome in half the simulations. 

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	0	Arsenal	16	21-6	98.5%	92%	71%	92%	66%	44%	27%	16%
2	0	Liverpool	16	22-8	98.2%	91%	70%	92%	68%	47%	31%	18%
3	0	Real Madrid	15	19-8	96.4%	85%	58%	85%	54%	31%	17%	8%
4	0	Barcelona	15	13-7	95%	81%	52%	83%	52%	31%	17%	8%
5	0	Man City	15	11-7	94%	79%	49%	81%	50%	28%	15%	7%
6	0	Chelsea	15	10-7	95%	80%	49%	80%	46%	24%	12%	6%
7	0	Inter	14	21-10	94%	79%	48%	79%	47%	25%	13%	6%
8	0	Paris SG	14	14-6	92%	76%	46%	81%	55%	35%	21%	11%
9	0	Bayern	14	14-9	92%	74%	42%	76%	46%	25%	13%	6%
10	0	Napoli	13	12-11	84%	60%	28%	60%	27%	11%	4.2%	1.6%
11	0	Juventus	12	11-6	81%	55%	24%	53%	22%	8%	2.7%	< 1%
12	0	Villarreal	12	10-8	79%	52%	22%	49%	18%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
13	0	Atalanta	12	13-12	78%	51%	21%	51%	22%	8%	3.0%	1.1%
14	0	Newcastle	12	10-9	77%	50%	21%	53%	26%	11%	4.4%	1.8%
15	0	Tottenham	12	9-8	77%	50%	20%	47%	18%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
16	0	Dortmund	12	12-15	75%	47%	19%	47%	19%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
17	0	Leverkusen	11	16-12	74%	46%	18%	48%	21%	8%	2.8%	1.0%
18	0	Atletico	11	16-12	75%	45%	17%	47%	20%	8%	2.8%	1.0%
19	0	Benfica	11	12-8	74%	45%	17%	46%	19%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
20	0	Sporting	11	9-7	73%	42%	15%	42%	15%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
21	0	Monaco	11	9-9	69%	40%	15%	37%	12%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
22	0	Bilbao	11	11-13	67%	38%	13%	39%	15%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
23	0	Brugge	10	15-16	61%	31%	9%	30%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
24	0	Frankfurt	10	15-18	58%	29%	8%	29%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
25	0	Olympiakos	10	10-13	58%	27%	7%	22%	5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
26	0	PSV	10	10-14	56%	27%	8%	29%	10%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	FC Kobenhavn	9	18-19	51%	22%	5%	18%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Galatasaray	9	12-15	48%	21%	5%	19%	4.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	0	Marseille	9	11-14	48%	21%	6%	21%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
30	0	St Gillis	9	11-17	44%	19%	4.7%	19%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Ajax	9	7-15	43%	17%	4.1%	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Slavia Praha	8	8-13	35%	13%	2.7%	12%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Bodoe Glimt	7	11-12	31%	11%	2.3%	10%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Paphos	6	11-15	19%	4.9%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Karabakh Agdam	5	11-22	9%	1.7%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Kairat	3	8-33	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	8-10	13	16-10	17	17-11
5%	10	13-12	13	11-8	16	14-5
25%	10	9-12	12	13-5	16	12-10
50%	9	12-11	12	12-10	15	13-7
75%	9	11-14	12	10-12	14	19-8
95%	8	14-16	11	9-8	14	13-10
99%	8	10-15	11	14-17	13	19-13