Will Denmark and Scotland secure top-2 spots in Group C?

Denmark, Scotland, Netherlands,  Austria and Croatia all can secure at least a spot in the playoff. Mot notably, in Group C Greece are out if they lose in Copenhagen and Scotland beat Belarus and thus securing the first two spots for Denmark and Scotland. Croatia can clinch qualification but will need some unexpected help from Faroe Islands.

Group C
Denmark clinch playoff if they win against Greece (54%)
Scotland clinch playoff if they win against Belarus and Denmark win against Greece (43%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	7	Denmark	12.9	+12	95.5%	95.2%	66%	85%
3	7	Scotland	11.8	+5	89%	88%	31%	42%
3	3	Greece	8	0	16%	16%	3.4%	7%
3	0	Belarus	1.3	-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G
Netherlands clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Finland (95%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	13	Netherlands	20.4	+22	99.94%	99.93%	97.2%	99.16%
5	10	Poland	15.6	+7	93%	93%	2.8%	22%
6	10	Finland	12.7	-2	7%	7%	< 1%	< 1%
6	3	Lithuania	3.6	-8
6	2	Malta	2.9	-19

 Group H
Austria clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Romania (68%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	15	Austria	21.8	+22	99.95%	99.95%	99.27%	99.70%
6	13	Bosnia and Herzegovina	14.2	+5	46%	46%	< 1%	1.4%
5	7	Romania	13	+9	100%	54%	< 1%	13%
6	5	Cyprus	7.7	-3
6	0	San Marino	0.5	-34	35%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group L
Croatia clinch qualifications if they win against Gibraltar and Faroe Islands win against Czechia (9%)
Croatia clinch playoff if they win against Gibraltar (98%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	13	Croatia	21	+26	>99.99%	>99.99%	97.9%	99.30%
6	13	Czechia	18.4	+12	100%	>99.99%	2.1%	26%
6	9	Faroe Islands	9.5	-3	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Montenegro	9	-9
5	0	Gibraltar	0.5	-27

 

 Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a playoff for the remaining four slots

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	99.29%	99.94%
A	Germany	100%	3.8%	96.2%	81%	95%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	98.8%	99.73%
D	France	100%	< 1%	99.98%	98.5%	99.75%
K	England	100%	< 1%	99.96%	99.80%	99.95%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	100%	94%	96.9%
J	Wales	100%	27%	73%	28%	50%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	2.1%	26%
H	Romania	100%	46%	54%	< 1%	13%
B	Sweden	>99.99%	67%	33%	< 1%	23%
J	North Macedonia	>99.99%	68%	32%	7%	13%
A	Northern Ireland	99.99%	68%	32%	5%	10%
I	Moldova	79%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino	35%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	99.62%	< 1%	99.60%	6%	74%
G	Netherlands	99.94%	< 1%	99.93%	97.2%	99.16%
C	Denmark	95.5%	< 1%	95.2%	66%	85%
L	Croatia	>99.99%	< 1%	>99.99%	97.9%	99.30%
C	Scotland	89%	< 1%	88%	31%	42%
K	Serbia	30%	3.9%	27%	< 1%	10%
F	Hungary	87%	< 1%	87%	1.2%	22%
J	Belgium	95.8%	< 1%	95.4%	66%	85%
G	Poland	93%	< 1%	93%	2.8%	22%
I	Israel	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Playoff seed statistics

Group	Team	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Group Winner
E	Spain	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.29%
D	France	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	98.5%
K	England	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.80%
F	Portugal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.8%
G	Netherlands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	97.2%
J	Belgium	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	66%
L	Croatia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	97.9%
I	Italy	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	6%
A	Germany	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	81%
B	Switzerland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	97.5%
C	Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	29%	66%
H	Austria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.27%
E	Turkey	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	85%	< 1%
D	Ukraine	< 1%	< 1%	14%	74%	1.4%
J	Wales	27%	< 1%	16%	29%	28%
I	Norway	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	4.4%	94%
B	Sweden	67%	< 1%	24%	8%	< 1%
K	Serbia	3.9%	< 1%	22%	4.8%	< 1%
G	Poland	< 1%	< 1%	77%	13%	2.8%
L	Czechia	< 1%	3.4%	92%	2.7%	2.1%
C	Greece	< 1%	1.3%	12%	< 1%	3.4%
F	Hungary	< 1%	19%	67%	< 1%	1.2%
A	Slovakia	< 1%	27%	32%	< 1%	13%
C	Scotland	< 1%	34%	24%	< 1%	31%
B	Slovenia	< 1%	35%	8%	< 1%	1.0%
H	Romania	46%	50%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ireland	< 1%	8%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	North Macedonia	68%	23%	2.1%	< 1%	7%
K	Albania	< 1%	72%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Georgia	< 1%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Finland	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Northern Ireland	68%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	5%
H	Bosnia and Herzegovina	< 1%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Iceland	< 1%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Israel	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Kosovo	< 1%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Luxembourg	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Armenia	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino	35%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%